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Can Patriots End Chiefs’ Perfect Season on Sunday Night?

If you’re a fan of high-quality football, Week 6’s Sunday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Patriots will be a game for you. If you’re a fan of non-quality football, I’d advise partaking in an Oakland Raiders game or waiting for the latest incarnation of the XFL to start.

Anyways, Kansas City remains perfect on the season, but something will need to give vs the Patriots, who are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This is undoubtedly the game of the year so far. It features the highest total of the season at 59 and the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a TNF game.
  • Kansas City games have finished with an average combined score of 60.8 so far this season.
  • The Patriots are 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games.

Chiefs vs Patriots Game Center

Extra Rest for Patriots = Extra Money for Bettors

Coming off a Thursday Night Football game has been a big money spot for New England backers as the Patriots are on a run that’s seen them go 10-3-1 ATS in the game after playing in a Thursday nighter. It’s not a shock that a team like the Pats has performed extraordinarily well in this spot considering the extra time gives them more time to prepare, rest and heal. The extra rest is coming at a perfect time, especially for their defense, as they face a Chiefs offense that ranks second in the NFL with 35 points per game.

New England also has the luxury of playing in its third straight home game, a spot that’s also benefited Patriots backers in recent years as they’ve gone 11-2 SU in their last 13 games in this situation. This has been a profitable spot across the entire NFL the past few seasons, as teams playing in their third consecutive home game have gone 31-16-2 ATS over the past three seasons.

Home sweet home for Brady and the Boys

The Patriots’ two early-season losses might be enough reason for some bettors to fade them in this game, especially when a fair argument can be made that Kansas City is flat-out a better team. However, those two losses occurred on the road, and New England has still resembled a Super Bowl contender at home, going 3-0 SU and ATS with an average win margin of 17.6.

It’s also hard to ignore the Pats’ long history of obliterating the visiting team. More recently, they’re on a 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS stretch where they’ve won by an average of 16 points. Going back even further, they’re 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games, good enough for a ridiculous covering percentage of 76.6 percent.

Kansas City could be the kryptonite to knock New England off its throne in the AFC, however, as the Chiefs haven’t missed a beat on the road, going 3-0 SU and ATS. And, of course, I won’t be the first or last person to remind you that they came into New England in Week 1 last season and humiliated the Patriots, beating them 42-27.

Should you be all over the over?

Opening the week at 59 points, this will be the highest total to date for the 2018 season if it stays intact — the previous high was 57 between the Falcons and Steelers last week. It certainly is a lot of points, but is it too many? Probably not.

Kansas City games have finished with an average combined score of 60.8 and New England is coming off a win vs the Colts that saw the teams combine for 62 points. The Patriots have allowed at least 20 points in four of their five games while Kansas City is allowing its opponents to score 25.8 points per game.

Most notably for the Chiefs defense, they rank 30th in yards allowed per play at 6.5, so there’s no reason why the Patriots offense shouldn’t be able to have their way with them. New England appears to be hitting its stride, scoring 38 points in consecutive weeks. The offense looks like it’s finally coming together with Gronk getting healthier, Josh Gordon becoming better acclimated to the offense and Sony Michel maturing into a serious playmaker out of the backfield.

Combining all this with Kansas City’s high-flying, quick-scoring offense and the fact that each team ranks in the top six in red-zone touchdown scoring percentage definitely makes me lean in the direction of the OVER.

My best bet for Chiefs vs Patriots

I’m going with the Patriots to halt Kansas City’s perfect season and cover the spread.

I’m taking the Patriots to cover the spread.

Their dominance at home is something I can’t ignore. Although their defense is average at best, the Chiefs’ is one of the worst in the league. Lots of points will be scored and I expect Patrick Mahomes and company to be playing catch-up for the majority of the game, but the big difference will be New England’s ability to get an extra stop or two which will be enough to cover the number.

Other need-to-know numbers for Sunday Night

Seriously, I could have added another 1,000 words to this betting preview with many more sexy numbers. That tends to be the case for any Patriots game. Instead, here’s some extra bullets to keep in mind for Chiefs vs Patriots:

  • The favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine SNF games.
  • Six of the seven head-to-head games between Bill Belichick and Andy Reid have gone OVER. Belichick is 5-2 SU in those games.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last three games vs the Patriots (avg. combined score: 57.0).
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of the Chiefs’ last 14 games at night.
  • The Patriots are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games at night.
  • The Patriots are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 SNF games.
  • The Chiefs are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.
  • In three road games this season, Patrick Mahomes has thrown 11 TDs and 0 INTs with a 130.7 QB rating.
  • Kansas City is allowing the second-most passing yards per game at 343.