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Trends Are Heavily in Favor of the Pats on Opening Night

TB12 and the Patriots are set to get their title defense campaign off and running when they take on the Kansas City Chiefs at Gillette Stadium in the NFL’s opening game on Thursday. New England opened as a 7-point favorite but the line has steadily moved in favor of the Pats and has the potential to close with the home team giving double-digit points.  

  • The Patriots are 3-0 SU when playing in the Thursday night kickoff game after winning the Super Bowl.
  • The Chiefs are 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games on the road against the Patriots.
  • The Patriots are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games.

As the consensus best team in football, the Patriots will not be entering their Week 1 contest expecting to lose. Much to the dismay of Andy Reid and the Chiefs, the Pats are 12-1 straight up in their last 13 season openers and they’ve won 11 straight games against opponents from the AFC.

In those conference contests, the Pats had a winning margin of 16.9 points and Tom Brady compiled a pristine passer rating of 116.9. With no drop-off expected from Handsome Tom and a few new weapons at his disposal, we could see similar numbers from the now 40-year-old quarterback.

Rob Gronkowski should draw plenty of attention from the K.C. secondary after he torched them in the teams’ last meeting in the 2016 divisional round of the postseason but the added deep threat brought to the table by Brandin Cooks should leave Gronk with a ton of space underneath.

New England simply has too many offensive wrinkles for a Chiefs side that ranked 24th in total defense last year. Make no mistake, the Pats will get their points on Thursday. The real question becomes whether the Chiefs can keep up and with Alex “Check Down” Smith still at the helm, that’s a big ask.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Oddsmakers at Bovada had the New England Patriots as 7-point favorites in the game, while the betting total was sitting at 50.

NFL prediction models run by the computers at OddsShark picked a 30-22 result in favor of the Patriots earlier in the week. Watch matchup reports and the picks page for any changes, due to injuries or suspensions this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Kansas City Chiefs vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Kansas City Chiefs will look to cover ATS vs their hosts on Thursday, as they were 9-8 ATS versus the spread last season, while the New England Patriots were 16-3 ATS. Kansas City was 6-11 against the OVER/UNDER total, while New England was 9-9-1 versus the number. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Kansas City injuries news.

It's a betting matchup between the No. 1-rated New England Patriots and the No. 3-ranked Kansas City Chiefs, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the New England Patriots' No. 3-ranked offense (28.68 PPG) against a Kansas City Chiefs defense that ranked No. 6 at 19.35 PPG. The Patriots passing attack averaged 284.47 yards per game, more than the Chiefs gave up through the air (245.65 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Kansas City Chiefs owned the league's No. 15-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 112 yards per game when on the road. New England, on the other hand, rated No. 17 in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Chiefs were divisional playoff losers coming out on the wrong end of an 18-16 score against Pittsburgh.

Tom Brady throttled the Falcons defense in his team's most recent action, throwing for 466 yards and 2 scores as New England handed Atlanta a 34-28 defeat.

Betting Trends
  • Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
  • Kansas City is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Kansas City's last 13 games
  • Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Kansas City vs Philadelphia, Sunday, September 17
New England at New Orleans, Sunday, September 17