Chiefs Have Been a Smart Bet Against the AFC West

The Chiefs have lost back-to-back games for only the second time during the Patrick Mahomes era.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The line opened with the Chiefs as 4.5-point road favorites, but following the Chiefs’ loss and Broncos’ win, it dipped to Kansas City -3.5. Denver’s moneyline opened at +217 but has jumped to the +150s depending on the book. The total opened at 50.

Kansas City fell to 4-2 straight up and 3-3 against the spread after losing its second consecutive home game, 31-24 to the Texans. The Broncos improved to 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS as they shut out the Titans 16-0 at Mile High. The UNDER has now hit in four of Denver’s six games this season.

The Chiefs have now failed to cover the spread in three straight with the OVER hitting in three of their past four. The Broncos have won and covered two straight. Patrick Mahomes went 5-0 ATS on the road to start the 2018 season, but the Chiefs are just 2-3-1 ATS on the road since. The OVER has hit in seven of the Chiefs’ last eight road games.

Kansas City News & Notes

Patrick Mahomes may have posted a flashy Week 6 stat line of 273 passing yards and three touchdowns against the Texans, but concerns linger. The Chiefs quarterback re-aggravated an ankle injury that has hampered his mobility throughout this season. On top of that, he was missing two starting offensive linemen, Eric Fisher and Andrew Wylie. Those two are questionable for Thursday’s matchup. So, you have a hobbled franchise quarterback playing behind an injury-riddled offensive line and facing a Denver pass rush that just got 10 hits and seven sacks on Titans quarterbacks last Sunday. Best of luck.

Heading into the 2019 season, Kansas City was expected to possess one of the league’s worst defenses. However, the absence of defensive tackle Chris Jones and linebacker Anthony Hitchens against the Texans magnified those inefficiencies and lack of depth. The Chiefs rush defense allowed Houston to rush for 192 yards, which allowed the Texans to control time of possession for *checks notes* NEARLY 40 MINUTES! It’s that type of stuff that allows an inferior Broncos offense to cover the spread on a short week.

On a positive note, the Chiefs think Sammy Watkins will be able to return from a hamstring injury in time to play Thursday night.

Denver News & Notes

On top of seven sacks, the Broncos picked off Titans quarterbacks three times. It’s the first time Denver has posted that stat line since 1984. The Broncos have allowed 6.5 points per game over their past two and have not allowed an offensive touchdown over the past nine quarters.

As expected, head coach Vic Fangio will need to continue to rely on the defense because on their banner day, the Broncos offense sputtered once more. Joe Flacco finished with a quarterback rating of 67.1 and the offense converted just two of 14 third downs.

How the offense fares against the Chiefs defense will come down to the play of Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman. The duo has racked up 279 rush yards on 54 carries (5.2 YPR) during the Broncos’ two-game win streak. More rushing attempts shortens the game so long as they convert those third downs and keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense off the field.

The latest injury update is that wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders is expected to play Thursday after leaving the Broncos’ Week 6 matchup with a knee injury.

Betting Pick: UNDER 50

Patrick Mahomes’ bum wheel and the offensive line’s health has me questioning if the Chiefs can get the job done on a short week at elevation. If K.C.’s offense doesn’t miss a beat, the Broncos’ points ceiling appears to be 20-21 points.

For more on the pick, hit me up on Twitter @FreelanceFowler