Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos

If you’ve come here for an MNF pick, you’ve come to the right place. I’m 3-0 with my Monday night best bets so far this season and I really like a teaser in this game. Sportsbook up as a 4.5-point favorite for the Week 4 tilt, Kansas City comes into Denver as one of the most hyped teams in the NFL and I’m buying every bit of the excitement.

The Sportsbook total of 55 was the highest on the Week 4 board and that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The Chiefs lead the NFL in scoring with a whopping 39.3 points per game and they’ve given up a league-high 30.7 per game themselves.

KC can clearly score at will but when Andy Reid’s playbook runs thin, can he rely on his defense to make a stop? Probably not, but that shouldn’t matter on Monday.

Chiefs vs Broncos Game Center

Best Bet: Chiefs +1 & OVER 50 (6-point Teaser)

One thing we’ve come to expect from the Chiefs is dominance within their division (11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against AFC West teams) and I see no reason for that to stop on Monday night. Yes, the Broncos are historically good at home early in the season and yes, they tend to perform well as home underdogs (6-2 ATS in their last eight) but Andy Reid has been clowning opposing defenses with his shiny new aerial weapons and Denver hasn’t been particularly good at stopping the pass.

Specifically, the Broncos allowed Joe Flacco to shred them for 277 yards through the air in Week 3 and Derek Carr to complete 29 of his 32 pass attempts in Week 2.

I’m also not too worried about a Case Keenum-led offense that’s found most of its success on the ground – the only place the Chiefs have had any luck on defense this season.

KC has been airing the ball out this year behind the massive arm of the new Patrick Mahomes – the new MVP betting favorite – and in the altitude of Mile High, he might be able to throw the ball the entire length of the field. If KC can establish the run and get the play-action going, Tyreek Hill and the KC offense could have another huge day.

As for the OVER, the Chiefs will give up points, I just think they’ll score far more than they’ll give up. If you’re feeling confident, you could do a straight parlay of the Chiefs spread and the OVER but making this thing a pick’em and cushioning the total with 6 points feels like easy money.

Mahomes Away from Home

Denver tends to be a pretty brutal destination for visiting teams but I don’t expect that to be a problem for KC. Andy Reid will have his team fully prepared for the altitude with extra time to prepare and with a 3-0 SU and ATS record in Denver since 2015, it’s not like this is his first rodeo.

Reid is notorious for picking teams apart when he gets extra time to prepare his game plan and he loves to beat divisional opponents.

When you combine those notes with Mahomes’ performance against the Steelers in Pittsburgh in Week 2 (23-28 with 326 yards and 6 touchdowns), it quickly dissolves any fear of the sophomore crumbling in hostile ground.

The Broncos are the Worst Bet in the NFL

At 2-12-1 against the spread in their last 15 games, the Broncos are the worst bet in the NFL (The Texans are the next “best” at 4-11 ATS) so it’s hard to put much faith in this team even when they’re getting a handful of points at home.

While they do have some compelling offensive weapons and one of the most lethal pass rushes in the league, the ponies don’t have what it takes to keep up with Andy Reid’s genius and Patrick Mahomes’ rocket arm.

Keep an eye on where the money is going in this game but don’t be scared when KC gets all the public action. The Chiefs have been one of the most heavily bet teams through three weeks and they’ve done nothing but deliver.