The Kansas City Chiefs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) will take their unbeaten record to Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday to battle the winless Indianapolis Colts (0-1-1, 0-2) as solid road favorites at sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark. The Chiefs got to enjoy some extra rest after topping the Los Angeles Chargers 27-24 but falling short of covering the spread as 4-point home chalk in the Week 2 Thursday Night Football matchup to improve to 2-0.
Chiefs vs Colts Opening Odds
The current state of Indianapolis is giving bettors reason enough to fade this team, especially after getting blanked 24-0 by the Jacksonville Jaguars as 3-point road favorites last Sunday.
The Colts have struggled offensively and were coming off a 20-20 tie against the Houston Texans as 7-point road chalk the previous week, and now they have to host one of the AFC’s best teams in their home opener.
That is why the point spread has more than doubled from the opener of Chiefs -3 to -6.5 in early action while the total has dropped down two points from 52.5 to 50.5 following the shutout.
Kansas City Will Likely Need Mahomes To Carry Team At Indianapolis
The Chiefs let Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert carve up their defense late in last week’s 27-24 victory, but they also beat him up and got him to throw an interception near the goal line that was returned 99 yards for a key touchdown that turned the tide in the game.
Instead of going up 24-17, Los Angeles fell behind by that score and could not get over that despite Herbert’s late-game heroics.
Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes made enough big plays, though, and will probably have to make more at Indy after starting linebacker Willie Gay was suspended four games for a violation of the NFL’s personal conduct policy. The Chiefs defense has not been great and got worse with that suspension.
Colts Not The Same Without Stars Leonard, Pittman On The Field
Indianapolis has been waiting for All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard to make his first appearance of 2022, and without him, this squad has been reeling on the defensive side of the ball.
Both the Texans and Jaguars scored 20 points or more against the Colts, and their next opponent could easily double that number if Leonard continues to miss time. The player previously known as Darius Leonard had offseason back surgery and has not yet been deemed ready to return.
Meanwhile, third-year wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. (quad) was a surprise late scratch for Indianapolis at Jacksonville after totaling nine catches for 121 yards and one touchdown at Houston in the season opener. Besides running back Jonathan Taylor, those are two of the team’s best players missing time.
Chiefs: Keys To Victory
If the Texans could tie the Colts and the Jaguars could blank them, then it should not take too much effort here to win. Covering the spread is another story, though, as this line approaches 7 points, and Mahomes must avoid turnovers and continue leading touchdown drives instead of settling for field goals.
Kansas City needs to keep its foot on the gas as it did against the Arizona Cardinals in the season opener to beat the number.
Colts: Keys To Victory
Will Pittman and Leonard play? Those are two key players who could make an immediate impact and give Indy a shot to pull off the upset. While the Colts have lost 10 games in a row as home underdogs, they have covered five of their last six as dogs overall.
Even if one of those two are back in the lineup, that may be enough to help cover. And it would help if new quarterback Matt Ryan stopped turning the ball over too.
NFL Computer Pick: Colts +6.5
Check out more of our signature NFL computer picks, plus our favorite sportsbooks that serve football customers.
Doc's Picks Service
Need more winning picks? Get $60 worth of premium member picks from Doc’s Sports – a recognized leader and trusted name in sports handicapping since 1971.
Odds Shark Staff Thu, Sep 29, 12:44pm