Don’t Expect Another Shootout In Pats-Chiefs Rematch

Week 14 features a rematch of last year’s AFC championship game, which produced 68 points and went to overtime. With New England all about defense this year and the Chiefs not quite as high-scoring as last season, a high total of 48.5 points looks ripe for the UNDER.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

Even after last week’s loss, the Patriots are still 10-2. They’re also 21-0 SU and 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games; there was no chance they wouldn’t be favored at home, but it shows how much respect the Chiefs are getting that they only opened as 3-point underdogs. The last matchup between these teams resulted in 68 points, and even though New England’s offense is a shell of its former self and the Chiefs aren’t scoring with the same consistency of last season, the total still opened at a high 48.5 points.

Kansas City News & Notes

With all the talk of the Ravens and MVP favorite Lamar Jackson, as well as the aforementioned Patriots and their dominant defense, the NFL seems to forget that the Chiefs had the best record in the NFL last year … and the MVP in Patrick Mahomes.

To provide a friendly little reminder to the league in Week 13, the Chiefs absolutely dismantled the Oakland Raiders 40-9 at Arrowhead Stadium, thoroughly dominating in all three facets of the game.

The Chiefs forced two interceptions, forced a fumble on a kick return, scored four offensive touchdowns and didn’t commit a penalty or a turnover. While the offensive stats weren’t among the Chiefs’ most memorable, it’s the mistake-free football that will matter against a Patriots defense that leads the NFL in turnovers and turnover differential.

If Kansas City can play a clean game, the Chiefs just might be able to get their second SU win in their last nine games at New England.

New England News & Notes

While the score may look like a close game, the reality is New England’s 28-22 loss to Houston last week on Sunday Night Football creates a lot of concern within the Patriots organization.

The offense was terribly lackluster, as quarterback Tom Brady was just 7-for-19 for 82 yards and an interception at halftime. New England actually trailed 28-9 late in the fourth quarter, with two garbage-time touchdowns making the score respectable.

This is the fourth straight disappointing offensive game for the Patriots, but even more concerning was their defense having an uncharacteristically pedestrian performance. They gave up four passing touchdowns — three by Deshaun Watson and one to Deshaun Watson — while failing to force a turnover for the first game all season.

The UNDER has hit in eight of New England’s 12 games this season. If the Pats want to win against the Chiefs this Sunday, their best bet is to have another low-scoring game — and not get into a track meet.

Betting Pick: UNDER 48.5

New England will tighten back up on defense, both teams will look to run and I don’t think we get the shootout like last year’s AFC championship. I’ll take the UNDER.