The Kansas City Chiefs (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) are favored to rebound from their first loss of the season when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1, 2-1) in a rematch of Super Bowl 55. The Bucs are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five as an underdog, including a cover as home dogs two years ago vs KC.
Chiefs vs Buccaneers Opening Odds
Tampa Bay has been a home underdog just twice in the Tom Brady era, but that could be the case when this game kicks off on Sunday night. KC opened as a 1.5-point favorite and had been bet up to 2.5-point chalk by the time of writing. There was also early support for the UNDER, driving the total down to a consensus of 45.
Special Teams Miscues, Penalties Cost Chiefs In Tough Loss To Indianapolis
Mistakes — especially on special teams — cost the Chiefs dearly last week as they dropped their first game of the season despite allowing just 259 total yards to Indianapolis. KC gifted the Colts their first touchdown by fumbling a punt deep in its own territory, then committed a personal foul penalty late in the fourth that led to Indy’s game-winning drive.
Patrick Mahomes was held to 262 passing yards, one week after managing only 235 in a tight victory over the Chargers. But KC’s most glaring issue came in the kicking game, where backup Matt Ammendola missed an extra point as well as a 34-yard field goal that would have put KC up seven points midway through the fourth. The Chiefs released Ammendola on Monday, perhaps an indication that injured starter Harrison Butker might be close to returning.
A couple of recent trends support the potential for a strong bounce-back effort from KC this week. The Chiefs have won their last six appearances in prime time, going 4-2 ATS in those contests, and they’re 7-1 ATS following a SU defeat on the road.
Buccaneers Playing Much Lower-Scoring Games Under New Head Coach
In three games under new head coach Todd Bowles, the Buccaneers are 3-0 to the UNDER with those games seeing an average of just 26 points scored. Tampa Bay’s defense is better than ever, allowing an average of just nine points per game, but Brady and the Bucs attack have yet to score more than 20 points in a contest and have generated just three touchdowns on the season.
Injuries are certainly a factor in Tampa Bay’s slow start offensively, as the Bucs were without top receivers Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Julio Jones in last week’s 14-12 loss to Green Bay. Evans is expected back this week from a one-game suspension, while Jones (knee) may also return.
Chiefs: Keys To Win
KC’s run defense has been excellent this young season, shutting down Jonathan Taylor last week and allowing 86.7 yards per game on the ground. If the Chiefs can open up a big lead and force Brady to beat them through the air, the Bucs might not have the receivers to do it.
Buccaneers: Keys To Win
With their offense struggling to score, the Bucs’ best chance at the upset might be by pressuring Mahomes into mistakes with their pass rush — just like they did in the Super Bowl two years ago. The Chiefs also couldn’t stop Indy last week when the game was on the line in the fourth quarter, not a good omen going into a meeting with Brady.
NFL Computer Pick: Buccaneers +2.5
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