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Tennessee Seeks Another Upset Hosting Kansas City

Derrick Henry and the Titans are underdogs in NFL betting odds visiting the Chiefs on Sunday.

The Tennessee Titans (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog, including Monday night’s 34-31 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Titans will try to pull off another upset Sunday at home against the Kansas City Chiefs (3-3, 2-4).

Kansas City Chiefs vs Tennessee Titans
  • Date/Time: October 24, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Nissan Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Chiefs -3 | O/U 56 (Line History)
  • Chiefs vs Titans Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The Chiefs opened as 3-point road favorites on the early line and have since been bet all the way up to Kansas City -5.5. The total has settled in at 57.5 points after opening at 56 points. The OVER is 5-1 in Tennessee’s last six home games against the Chiefs.

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Kansas City News & Notes

Turnovers were still an issue for the Chiefs last Sunday against the Washington Football Team as Patrick Mahomes threw two interceptions and the team had three fumbles (with one lost).

But the defense stepped up with a dominant effort and Mahomes finished the day going 32-for-47 with 397 passing yards and two passing touchdowns in a 31-13 blowout win on the road.

The win was just what the Chiefs needed after a 38-20 blowout loss at home to the Buffalo Bills the previous week. Kansas City’s defense had allowed 437.4 total yards and 32.6 points per game over a 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS stretch before holding Washington to only 276 yards and 13 points. Chiefs fans and bettors would love to see a lot more performances like this one moving forward.

Tennessee News & Notes

Speaking of strong defensive performances, the Titans defense came up with some timely stops on Monday night to secure their upset over the Buffalo Bills.

Instead of attempting a field goal that would have tied the game, Buffalo called a quarterback sneak on fourth down at the Tennessee three-yard line. Tennessee stuffed the attempt to come away with the outright win as a 6-point underdog, improving to 4-1 SU and ATS over its last five games.

Derrick Henry rushed for 143 yards and three touchdowns on 20 carries in the win. Henry rushed for 1,540 yards and 16 touchdowns in 2019, 2,027 yards and 17 touchdowns in 2020 and is now on pace for 2,218 rushing yards and 28 rushing touchdowns in 2021 with an extra regular-season game to work with.

Why Kansas City Will Cover

Ryan Tannehill isn’t playing as well this season as he did in his first two campaigns in Tennessee. The key to victory for the Chiefs in this one is a fast start. If Kansas City can take an early lead and force the Titans to start trying to play catch-up in the passing game, that isn’t likely to end well for Tennessee.

Why Tennessee Will Cover

Kansas City has the NFL’s sixth-worst rushing defense, allowing 133.2 rushing yards per game. Tennessee has Derrick Henry. If Tennessee can keep Mahomes off the field with another dominant performance by Henry, there’s no reason the Titans can’t cover the spread or even pull off another upset.

Computer Pick: Titans +5.5

For more Week 7 predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.

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Shark Bites
  • Kansas City is 3-13-1 ATS in its last 17 games.
  • Tennessee is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 October games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in Tennessee’s last 5 games.