The Detroit Lions (12-2) finally stubbed their toe with a loss to the Bills last week, but are 6.5-point favorites at FanDuel this week as they’ll be hoping to bounce back on the road against the Chicago Bears (4-10).
When these NFC North rivals met on Thanksgiving, the Bears nearly pulled off the road upset. Can the Lions pull away this time around? Or will Chicago pull off a stunner? Let’s dive into the matchup and find out.
Lions vs Bears Odds Week 16
Detroit vs Chicago, Dec. 22, 1:00 pm ET
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | -6.5 (-114) | -300 | O47.5 (-115) |
| Chicago Bears | +6.5 (-106) | +245 | U47.5 (-105) |
Odds as of Dec. 18 at FanDuel
Lions vs Bears Picks - Week 16
Lions Over 27.5 Points (-106) at FanDuel
After winning 11 straight games, the Lions finally got tripped up by the Bills last week, losing 48-42. Their defense has cratered in recent weeks, ranking 25th in DVOA since Week 12 after ranking third over the first 11 weeks of the season. You could field a full, competitive starting 11 of defensive players from Detroit’s Injured Reserve, so it’s not shocking to see their decline on that end.
Can the Chicago Bears take advantage? That’s the question you have to answer if you’re looking to bet on the spread in this game. Caleb Williams has had a rocky rookie season, and the turmoil in the Bears’ coaching staff certainly hasn’t helped him establish consistency. Chicago generated over 300 yards on offense in that first matchup, so they could succeed here against an injured defense.
However, I’m more interested in the other side of the matchup. The Lions turned 405 yards and 25 first downs into just 23 points in that prior meeting due to a fumble in the red zone and a missed short field goal. Those mistakes should be cleaned up for this rematch, and the Bears defense looks ripe for the picking after surrendering 30+ points to the 49ers and Vikings in the two games after Matt Eberflus was dismissed.
While the loss of David Montgomery hurts the offense, Jahmyr Gibbs should be in position to torch this Bears run defense that ranks 31st in DVOA. Gibbs is primarily used on zone scheme runs in the Detroit offense, and Chicago has allowed 4.7 YPC on that run type, the fourth-highest in the NFL.
With the defensive injuries mounting, the Lions will need their offense to carry the team to wins for the foreseeable future, and I expect that to happen this week. The Lions have cleared 27.5 points in exactly half of their games, but that Thanksgiving matchup against the Bears should have yielded 30+ points. Expect them to break through that threshold this week.
Lions vs Bears Prop Pick Week 16
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 85.5 Rushing Yards (-110) at bet365
When Jahmyr Gibbs faced the Bears earlier this year, he finished with 87 rushing yards on just nine carries. He should see an increased workload for the rest of the year after David Montgomery suffered a season-ending MCL injury, and that will start this week against a putrid Bears run defense.
Chicago ranks 30th in defensive line yards and 27th in rushing EPA allowed. In what should be a positive game script, Gibbs should run all over the Bears on Sunday.
Lions vs Bears Betting Trends
- The Lions have gone 0-3 ATS in their last three games after starting the year 9-1 ATS
- The Bears have gone 2-6 SU and 0-8 ATS in their last eight games
- The Bears are 2-14 SU vs the NFC North over the last three seasons, the worst mark for any team against its own division
