Bolts Favored Over Broncos In Key AFC West Battle

The Denver Broncos (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS) are 7-1 SU and 4-3-1 ATS in their last eight home games against the Los Angeles Chargers (6-4, 5-5). The Broncos can extend their current home win streak against the Chargers to three games with an upset victory Sunday afternoon.

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The betting line on this matchup has remained steady since the Chargers opened as 2.5-point road favorites in Denver. The total has settled in at 47 points after originally being set at 48 points. The UNDER is 8-2 in Denver’s last 10 games.

Los Angeles News & Notes

This year’s Chargers look like they will go as far as quarterback Justin Herbert can take them. Herbert had a sensational game in Sunday’s 41-37 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, completing 30 of his 41 passes for 382 passing yards and three touchdowns while also adding 90 rushing yards on nine carries.

The second-year quarterback has averaged 378.7 passing yards and three touchdown passes per game in Los Angeles’s last three wins while averaging 204 passing yards and throwing five touchdowns and five picks in the team’s last three losses.

Los Angeles failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point favorite in the win over Pittsburgh, falling to 1-4 ATS over its last five games. Prior to the recent ATS slump, the Chargers had gone 8-1 SU and ATS over their previous nine games.

See Odds Shark’s Best NFL Betting Sites

Denver News & Notes

The line closed as a pick’em in Denver’s last game against the Philadelphia Eagles on November 24. But the game didn’t play out nearly as competitively as it looked on paper as the Eagles led 20-10 at halftime and eventually cruised to a 30-13 road win over the Broncos.

Teddy Bridgewater went 22-for-36 in the loss with 226 passing yards and no touchdowns or interceptions. Denver fell to 2-5 SU and ATS over its last seven games with the loss.

Bridgewater has played well enough to win in most of Denver’s games this season with 2,389 passing yards, 14 touchdowns and five interceptions. Still, in a division that features Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Derek Carr, it’s fair to wonder if the Broncos made the right call in passing on the opportunity to draft Justin Fields or Mac Jones with the No. 9 pick in the 2021 NFL Draft.

How Los Angeles Will Cover

Justin Herbert holds the keys to Los Angeles’s fate on Sunday. When he’s at his best, the Chargers can hang with anyone in the NFL and can certainly win and cover against the Broncos. Chargers backers will be relying on one of those games from Herbert.

How Denver Will Cover

Denver comes into this game off a bye week while Los Angeles just played in an emotional roller-coaster of a game last Sunday. If Melvin Gordon III and Javonte Williams can take advantage of this weak Chargers rushing defense, the Broncos will be live to an upset.

Computer Pick: Broncos +2.5

For more NFL predictions, visit our NFL Computer Picks page.