In what should be the marquee game of the NFL season thus far, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints will go toe to toe in the Bayou in Week 9. The Rams are the only undefeated team left in the NFL while the Saints are riding a six-game win streak. Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 60.
- The Saints are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home.
- The Rams are 11-1 SU in their last 12 road games (avg. win margin: 14.5 points).
- The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Saints’ last 6 games.
Rams have Slight Edge Despite Conflicting Stats
When diving into the numbers to see which team has the advantage, it’s hard to find one. The Rams own the best rushing attack at 150 yards per game while the Saints have the best rush defense at 74.1 yards per game. The Rams are seventh in sacks this season and Drew Brees is the least-sacked quarterback in the NFL.
But where the Rams may have the edge is in the passing attack as Los Angeles is averaging 291.8 yards through the air (ranked seventh) while New Orleans gives up an average of 300 yards per game (ranked 28th) and has only managed three interceptions (ranked 28th) this season.
This is why the Rams have been so dominant this season. They’ve balanced the run and the pass so well that defenses are consistently on their heels trying to figure out what play Sean McVay will call next. Los Angeles has also been an excellent road team dating back to the start of last season at 11-1 SU away from the Rose Bowl with an average win margin of 14.5 points per game. When you factor in that the Rams took down the Saints 26-20 last season in LA, it’s clear the edge should go to the only undefeated team in the NFL.
Saints Have Been Tough To Beat Lately at Superdome
It’s been a bit of a renaissance in the Bayou with the Saints taking the two-headed rushing attack to a whole new level. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have combined for over 2,400 yards rushing since they’ve started sharing the backfield and their presence has opened the door for Drew Brees to operate in the pocket.
Brees might be having the best season of his career as he leads the league in completion percentage (77.4) and has only thrown one interception, which is incredible considering he ranks 18th in pass attempts among all quarterbacks. With him playing at such a high level, the Saints offense has been methodical so it’s hard to pick against them as they’ve gone 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home. I’m leaning to the Rams in this game but bettors can’t be faulted at all if they went with the Saints at home as I see this game as a coin flip.
Sky-High Total Makes the UNDER Enticing
The total opened at 60 points in this NFC showdown and the reason why this number is historical is that a closing total hasn’t been this high since 2004. That total 14 years ago (60.5) was a Christmas Day game between the Chiefs and Raiders and while this shouldn’t factor into how you perceive this game, it’s worth noting the total went just OVER with 61 points.
Both teams are scoring a ton of points this season but I’m predicting an UNDER in this game. In the Rams’ last 24 games (since the start of last season), the final score has only gone OVER 60 points in six of those games. As for the Saints, the final score has only gone OVER 60 points five times in their last 23 games and the UNDER has hit in four of their last six games with an average combined score of 54.8.
My Pick Is…
To take the Rams to cover and the UNDER on separate bets. Until the Rams lose, I can’t bet against them and the Saints defense can be exploited through the air if Todd Gurley can’t break them down. As for the UNDER, I’m mainly playing the percentages as 60 points is a lot in an NFL game, even though these are two of the most prolific offenses in the league.
