Few rivalries in NFL history are more captivating than Josh Allen vs Patrick Mahomes. The generational quarterbacks have provided football fans with some of the most electrifying postseason games in recent memory. Now, Allen and Mahomes meet in the AFC Championship game for the fourth time in the last five postseasons. With a trip to Super Bowl 59 on the line, Allen vs Mahomes promises to be an epic gridiron clash.
Make no mistake, the Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship game will be a legacy-defining contest. Let's take a look at the Allen vs Mahomes playoff betting records, key stats, and find some value on the AFC Championship odds board.
Allen vs Mahomes Playoff Head-to-Head Betting Record
Bills vs Chiefs AFC Championship Game Betting Preview
| Player | SU | ATS (since 2020) | O/U (since 2020) | Average Points For |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 0-3 | 0-3 | 3-0 | 28 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 3-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 35.6 |
Comparing these two quarterbacks paints a picture of two distinctly different stories. On the one hand, Allen is 4-1 SU in the regular season against Mahomes. On the other, when the games matter the most, Mahomes is a perfect 3-0 SU in the playoffs against his foe.
Across the past five seasons, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are an unmatched 15-2 SU in the playoffs. So it's no surprise to see the Chiefs star with a perfect 3-0 record both SU and ATS against Allen. Even more threateningly, the average margin of victory for the Chiefs sits at over seven points per contest.
Allen and the Bills will look to right the ship in the AFC Championship at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday.
Allen Vs Mahomes Playoff Head-to-Head Stats & AFC Championship Game Prop Bets to Target
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| Player | Pass Yards Per Game | Pass TDs | INTs | Completion % | QB Rating | Rushing Yards | Rushing TDs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Allen | 267.33 | 7 | 1 | 65.32% | 98.9 | 228 | 2 |
| Patrick Mahomes | 306 | 8 | 0 | 75.24% | 126.6 | 93 | 1 |
As the numbers indicate, Mahomes has absolutely torched the Buffalo Bills defense. In four playoff matchups, he's averaged two touchdowns per game, without throwing a pick, while completing over 75% of passes. Considering Mahomes has a career playoff passer rating of 105.6 while throwing for 5,312 yards, 42 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 19 playoff games, his outstanding stats against Buffalo should come as no surprise. All of this to say, Mahomes passing yardage prop of 249.5 yards looks awfully enticing.
Having said that, he's been far from his explosive self this season, throwing for fewer than 200 yards on five occasions, while clearing 300 yards in only three games. Although, the three-time Super Bowl champ has destroyed defenses for 13 total touchdowns since throwing his last interception - against the Bills - way back in Week 11.
On the flip side, Josh Allen has put together an otherworldly offensive season. The Wyoming product completed over 63% of his passes for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and just six interceptions. The 6'5, 240-pounder has been unstoppable on the ground, churning out 531 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. Allen's legs will be the key in the AFC Championship game. The Bills quarterback has averaged 57 rushing yards per game against his archenemy in the playoffs, expect that to continue. Bet on Josh Allen OVER 48.5 rushing yards.
Allen vs Mahomes Prop Picks: Josh Allen OVER 48.5 rushing yards (-114), Patrick Mahomes OVER 249.5 passing yards (-114)
Allen vs Mahomes AFC Championship Game Will Define This Era
You may have heard that Mahomes on the Chiefs are on a quest to Mordor to destroy the one ring and save Middle-Earth. I mean, Kansas City is on a mission to win their third straight Super Bowl championship and immortalize themselves as the first team to ever do so. In order to win their third straight Lombardi Trophy, Kansas City's defense will need to slow down Allen far better than they did in Buffalo's 30-21 win earlier this season. That game was the first in which the Chiefs had surrendered 30 or more points since Super Bowl LVII.
Allen managed to lead his team to nine third-down conversions on 15 attempts in that meeting and will need to replicate that performance on Sunday. That will be a tough task against an uberly aggressive unit that sacked CJ Stroud eight times in the Divisional Round. Plus, the Chiefs created 12 pressures and three sacks on 17 blitzes with a 70% pressure rate on those plays. Buffalo's offensive line has been a strength all season long. But, protecting Allen, and deciphering Steve Spagnuolo's exotic blitz packages has to be priority number one. You can bet Spags will have a few new looks cooked up to throw at Allen at just the right moment.
The local radio call by @ChrisBrownBills & @EWood70 of Josh Allen’s huge play vs. the Chiefs. Go Bills! pic.twitter.com/HAAsbJwr9H
— dan o 🦬 (@dano_bills) November 18, 2024
The likely NFL MVP completed 27 of 40 passes for 262 yards with one touchdown and one pick against Kansas City way back in Week 11. He added the decisive rushing touchdown on a fourth down to lead his team to victory. Allen will need to be at his playmaking best to have any hope of defeating the Chiefs in the AFC Championship game.
At the same time, Mahomes should have little trouble moving the football against a Buffalo defense that allowed the Ravens to gain 7.3 yards per play in the Divisional Round. He's 4-2SU in the AFC Championship game - with his losses coming against the Tom Brady-led New England Patriots, and Joe Burrow's Cincinnati Bengals. On top of that, Allen and the Bills have struggled of late as underdogs in the playoffs, going just 1-3 ATS in their last four playoff games as underdogs. Allen has shown flashes of brilliance, but overcoming the great Mahomes will be no easy task.
In a game that will shape the legacy of these two quarterbacks, betting on Mahomes consistency in championship moments is the key to cashing your AFC Championship game bets.
