The Buffalo Bills (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) are 6-0 SU and 4-2 ATS in their last six games against the Miami Dolphins (1-6, 2-5). The Bills can continue their success against the Dolphins with another victory Sunday afternoon in Buffalo.
- Date/Time: October 31, 1 p.m. ET
- Stadium: Highmark Stadium
- TV Coverage: CBS
- Sportsbook Odds: Bills -11.5 | O/U 49.5 (Line History)
- Dolphins vs Bills Matchup Report
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Bills opened as 11.5-point favorites in this matchup and have received enough betting action to move the line up two full points to Buffalo -13.5. The total in this AFC East rivalry game has remained steady at 49.5 points. The OVER is 4-1 in Miami’s last five games.
Miami News & Notes
The full-blown collapse of the Dolphins has been one of the biggest surprises of the 2021 NFL season. After giving the Jacksonville Jaguars their first win of the season in Week 6, Miami lost to the Atlanta Falcons 30-28 last Sunday to fall to 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games. Tua Tagovailoa went 32-for-40 with 291 passing yards and four scoring strikes in the loss, but he also threw two interceptions.
Brian Flores led this group to a 10-6 SU campaign in his second year as head coach last season. The Dolphins came into this year with their win total set at nine. But through the first half of the season, they have emerged as one of the NFL’s worst teams. Miami ranks dead last in total defense (allowing 414.9 yards per game) and 28th in total offense with only 307.6 yards a game.
Buffalo News & Notes
The Bills had a 4-0 SU and ATS winning streak snapped in a 34-31 loss on Monday Night Football against the Tennessee Titans. It was a rare off-night defensively for Buffalo as the team had allowed only 10.3 points per game over its previous four games.
Josh Allen went 35-for-47 with three touchdown passes and one interception in the loss and was stuffed on a fourth-and-one quarterback sneak attempt late in the fourth quarter that sealed the win for Tennessee.
Buffalo’s last two games against the Dolphins have not been remotely competitive. The Bills rolled to a 56-26 win over Miami in January and a 35-0 win earlier this season. In seven career starts against the Dolphins, Allen has 19 touchdown passes and only five interceptions.
How Miami Will Cover
Miami will need another big game from Tua Tagovailoa to keep this matchup competitive. The 13.5-point spread leaves some room for error in a shootout type of scenario, which is Miami’s best chance in a game that the defense is very unlikely to have much success in.
How Buffalo Will Cover
The Bills are arguably the best team in the NFL. They’ve had a bye week to prepare for this game and will have a chip on their shoulder after losing their last one. All signs point to another big win for Buffalo in this one.
Computer Pick: Buffalo -13.5
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Buy Sports Picks Now- Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games vs Buffalo.
- Buffalo is 9-1 SU in its last 10 home games.
- The OVER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
