Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals

Andy Dalton converted a third and two fourth downs during the Bengals’ 16-play, 75-yard game-winning touchdown drive against the Falcons on Sunday afternoon in Atlanta. As 3.5-point underdogs, the dramatic 37-36 road win improved Cincinnati to 3-1 straight up and against the spread. The Dolphins’ undefeated start to the season is no more after the Patriots humbled Miami 38-7. New England held Ryan Tannehill’s offense to 172 total yards and under 24 minutes of possession. By failing to cover with the gifted 6.5 points, Miami drops to 3-1 straight up and against the spread. Cincinnati is a 5.5-point home favorite with the road team moneyline +162 and total 50 in what is expected to be another high-scoring affair featuring the Bengals.

Dolphins vs Bengals Game Center

BENGALS OFFENSE IS L-L-L-OADED

We’re four weeks into the season and five offenses are averaging better than 30 points per game. The Chiefs, Rams and Saints have earned plenty of headlines for their ability to light up scoreboards across the country, but don’t sleep on the AFC North as the Ravens check in at 30.8, right behind the Bengals’ 31.5 points per game. The Bengals have scored at least 34 points in three of their first four games with two of those contests coming on the road.

While unfortunate, Tyler Eifert’s season-ending ankle injury shouldn’t impact the team’s offensive momentum too much. Tyler Kroft acted as a serviceable backup last season and finished with seven touchdowns. Plus, for all the love A.J. Green deservedly receives, the biggest surprise of the young season has been the emergence of Tyler Boyd. He leads the team in catches, targets, yards and receptions of 20 or more yards.

Miami’s 26th-ranked pass defense, which just allowed Tom Brady to pass for 274 yards and three touchdowns, is going to have its hands full for a second straight week.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: TANnEHILL’S COMPLETION PERCENTAGE

Before the Patriots held him to 11-of-20 passing for 100 yards, Ryan Tannehill had completed nearly 73 percent of his passes on the season. While Vontaze Burfict’s return from suspension will no doubt improve the Bengals defense, Cincinnati still ranks 28th against the pass, allowing more than 300 pass yards per game. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 67.3 percent of a league-high 171 attempts against the Bengals to date. This is where Tannehill needs to thrive, but will try to do so without his starting center, Daniel Kilgore, who is out for the season with a torn triceps.

Miami is 18-5 straight up and 16-7 against the spread when Tannehill completes 70 percent or more of his passes in a game.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: BACK THE BENGALS WHEN MIXON THINGS UP

Like Christian McCaffrey and Alvin Kamara before him, Gio Bernard continued the three-week trend of hybrid running backs torching the depleted Falcons defense. Bernard posted 98 total yards with two touchdowns, but his role atop the Bengals running back depth chart may be coming to an end. Despite missing the past two games due to knee surgery, Joe Mixon still leads the team in rushing yards and is likely to return against the Dolphins.

In those first two games, Mixon averaged 22 touches (rushing plus receiving). The Bengals are now 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread when Mixon touches the ball 20 or more times in a game. Feed him the rock.

CINCINNATI, OH FORECAST

Partly cloudy with temperatures in the low-80s, humidity in the 70s and 30 percent chance of an afternoon thunderstorm.

Miami’s rookie kicker Jason Sanders has only attempted two field goals through the first four games. He made both back in Week 1.

MY PICK

Four games into the season, we kind of know what to expect from the Bengals on any given Sunday. They possess an uptempo offense with a defense that leaves little to be desired to those betting the UNDER. On the other hand, the Dolphins’ one-possession wins over the Titans, Jets and Raiders before a blowout loss to the Patriots may prove the smoke and mirrors have abandoned them. With Mixon and Burfict returning for the Bengals, the Bengals roll over the Dolphins.