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Falcons Looking for a Bounce-Back Win Over Dysfunctional Dolphins

After being upset at home as an 8-point favorite in Week 4, the Falcons have used their bye week to regroup and will look to re-stake their claim as the NFC’s top dog vs a Dolphins team that’s been riddled with both off- and on-field issues throughout the season. The Falcons have effectively capitalized on their bye week in recent seasons and their backers have benefited as they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games following their bye week.

Shark Bites
  • The Dolphins rank 31st in the NFL in net yards per play. The Falcons rank first.
  • Devonta Freeman has scored at least one TD in eight of his last nine games at home.
  • The Dolphins are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Falcons.

It shouldn’t come as a shock to see the Falcons as a double-digit favorite, but this has been an unprofitable spot for them in recent seasons as they’ve gone 6-14 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite. Although bettors shouldn’t expect an outright win by Miami, they should keep in mind that the Fish have gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit dog.

The Falcons had a streak of 11 straight OVERs on their home field snapped in that loss to the Bills in Week 4. The total for this game is hovering in the 47-point range and the Falcons might be hard pressed to start a new home OVER streak vs a Dolphins squad that’s gone UNDER in all of their games this season. Miami has the worst offense in the league, averaging a pathetic 10.2 points per game, while their defense is picking up the slack, allowing just 16.8 points per game, which is good enough for fourth-best in the NFL.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Odds at sportsbooks such as Bovada had the Atlanta Falcons pegged as 9-point favorites in this betting matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by books like TopBet at 47.5.

OddsShark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 32-10 victory for the Falcons. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Atlanta brings a 3-1 record (2-2 ATS) to the Week 6 betting matchup against the 2-2 Miami Dolphins, who are 2-2 against the spread. OVER/UNDER betting has seen Atlanta go 2-2 so far and the Dolphins go 0-4. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Miami injuries news.

The Falcons-Dolphins odds would favor the Falcons if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Atlanta is rated No. 3 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Dolphins sit at No. 28.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Atlanta Falcons' No. 8-ranked offense (26 PPG) against a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks No. 4 at 16.75 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 262.5 yards per game, more than the Dolphins give up through the air (234 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Dolphins own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 73.5 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

The Dolphins grabbed a Week 5 victory over the Titans in their last game, winning 16-10 at Hard Rock Stadium.

In their last game, the Falcons were Week 4 losers coming out on the wrong end of a 23-17 score against Buffalo.

Betting Trends
  • Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Miami is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
  • Miami is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
  • Atlanta is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 11 of Atlanta's last 13 games
  • Atlanta is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Atlanta's last 13 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Miami home to New York, Sunday, October 22
Atlanta at New England, Sunday, October 22