After being upset at home as an 8-point favorite in Week 4, the Falcons have used their bye week to regroup and will look to re-stake their claim as the NFC’s top dog vs a Dolphins team that’s been riddled with both off- and on-field issues throughout the season. The Falcons have effectively capitalized on their bye week in recent seasons and their backers have benefited as they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in their last five games following their bye week.
It shouldn’t come as a shock to see the Falcons as a double-digit favorite, but this has been an unprofitable spot for them in recent seasons as they’ve gone 6-14 ATS in their last 20 as a home favorite. Although bettors shouldn’t expect an outright win by Miami, they should keep in mind that the Fish have gone 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games as a double-digit dog.
The Falcons had a streak of 11 straight OVERs on their home field snapped in that loss to the Bills in Week 4. The total for this game is hovering in the 47-point range and the Falcons might be hard pressed to start a new home OVER streak vs a Dolphins squad that’s gone UNDER in all of their games this season. Miami has the worst offense in the league, averaging a pathetic 10.2 points per game, while their defense is picking up the slack, allowing just 16.8 points per game, which is good enough for fourth-best in the NFL.
Sportsbook Odds & Computer Pick
Odds at sportsbooks such as Sportsbook had the Atlanta Falcons pegged as 9-point favorites in this betting matchup. The total, meanwhile, was listed by books like Sportsbook at 47.5.
OddsShark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 32-10 victory for the Falcons. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.
Miami Dolphins vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup
Team Betting Records & Power Rankings
Atlanta brings a 3-1 record (2-2 ATS) to the Week 6 betting matchup against the 2-2 Miami Dolphins, who are 2-2 against the spread. OVER/UNDER betting has seen Atlanta go 2-2 so far and the Dolphins go 0-4. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Miami injuries news.
The Falcons-Dolphins odds would favor the Falcons if the betting lines were set according to power ranks. Atlanta is rated No. 3 in our latest OddsShark poll, while the Dolphins sit at No. 28.
Statistical Matchup
Offensively, the game matches up the Atlanta Falcons' No. 8-ranked offense (26 PPG) against a Miami Dolphins defense that ranks No. 4 at 16.75 PPG. The Falcons passing attack has averaged 262.5 yards per game, more than the Dolphins give up through the air (234 YPG on average).
In comparing defenses, the Dolphins own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 73.5 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.
Recent Outings Betting Recap
The Dolphins grabbed a Week 5 victory over the Titans in their last game, winning 16-10 at Hard Rock Stadium.
In their last game, the Falcons were Week 4 losers coming out on the wrong end of a 23-17 score against Buffalo.
Next Betting Matchups
Miami home to New York, Sunday, October 22
Atlanta at New England, Sunday, October 22