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Dolphins are biggest dog of the season vs Patriots

The AFC East will finally get back to divisional play when the New England Patriots host the Miami Dolphins in Week 12. The Patriots, fresh off wrapping up the Raiders in a burrito in Mexico City, opened as the largest favorite of the season at 17 points. They’ll take on a struggling Dolphins team that is 4-6 SU this season and has lost its last four.

  • The Dolphins are 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five games vs the Patriots.
  • The total has gone OVER in the Dolphins’ last five games.
  • The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games vs the AFC East.

New England is no stranger to being a favorite. The Pats have yet to be an underdog this season and haven’t been in that category since Week 1 vs the Cardinals in 2016 (remember how that turned out?) But opening as a 17-point favorite? We had to dip into the database on this one.

The Patriots have been favored by 17 points or more seven times in 10 seasons and while the good news for Pats backers is they’re 7-0 SU in those games, the bad news is they’re 2-5 ATS.  Such a high spread should make bettors cautious as the Pats are 9-10 ATS in their last 19 games as a double-digit favorite. I don’t think anyone is disputing the Patriots should get the victory against the struggling Dolphins as the Fish are 0-8 in their last eight trips to Foxborough.

If you’re looking for the Hail Mary wager, Miami to cover the spread may need to be considered. The Dolphins have been double-digit dogs four times in the last two seasons and are 3-1 ATS in those matchups. Other than that, there aren’t many positive trends to support the Fins’ case because when you lose four straight, your flaws become exposed to the world. The ongoing injury woes of TV analyst-turned-quarterback Jay Cutler have submarined Miami’s season and backup Matt Moore has shown so far that his skills as a starter are not enough to push them into contention.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the Miami Dolphins listed as 15.5-point underdogs at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER line for the betting matchup was at 47 over at 5Dimes.

OddsShark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 41-9 victory for the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The New England Patriots sport a record of 8-2 and 6-4 ATS heading into this betting matchup, while the Miami Dolphins sit at 4-6 and 3-5-2 ATS on the season. The OVER/UNDER totals records are 5-5 for the Patriots and 5-5 for the Dolphins. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and New England vs Miami injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at OddsShark it's the No. 5-rated Patriots and the No. 30-rated Dolphins in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits New England's No. 4-ranked offense, averaging 29 PPG, against a Dolphins defense that ranks No. 25 this week at 25.4 PPG. The Patriots aerial game is averaging 304.5 yards per game, more than the Dolphins secondary allows through the air, 229.3 YPG per game.

Defensively, the Dolphins feature the league's No. 31-rated road run defense, allowing 143 yards per game. The Patriots, meanwhile, rank No. 18 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last gridiron battle, Kenny Stills did much of the damage, producing 180 receiving yards but Tampa Bay managed to defeat the Dolphins 30-20 at Hard Rock Stadium.

New England comes off a game where it received a 3-TD performance from Tom Brady in defeating the Raiders 33-8.

Betting Trends
  • Miami is 0-3-2 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
  • Miami is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games
  • New England is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Miami home to Denver, Sunday, December 3
New England at Buffalo, Sunday, December 3