On a day that Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook weren’t at their best, Minnesota’s defense couldn’t bail them out. The Vikings fell to 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS in a 26-23 loss to Matt Moore’s Chiefs. The Cowboys’ 37-18 Monday night win over the Giants wasn’t a thing of beauty but did improve Dallas’ SU and ATS records to 5-3. The Vikings are 3-1 ATS at home but just 2-3 ATS on the road and now face a Cowboys squad that protects its home turf.
Sportsbook Odds Analysis
The Cowboys opened as 3-point home favorites, while the Vikings moneyline opened at +131 and the point total at 47. The total has gone UNDER in 11 of the Vikings’ last 14 night games.
Dallas is 3-1 ATS at home this season but just 3-7 ATS over its last 10 home games when favored by less than a field goal. The OVER is 7-2-1 in those contests.
Since joining the Vikings, Kirk Cousins’ prime-time record (in games after 8 p.m. ET) is 1-4-1 ATS and 0-2-1 on the road. Cousins’ career prime-time road record ATS is 2-6-1.
Minnesota News and Notes
Against the Chiefs, Kirk Cousins finished with a completion rate below 70 percent for only the second time this season. He completed just 50 percent of his passes against a secondary that has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete 63 percent of their pass attempts. Dalvin Cook averaged 3.4 yards per rush against a Chiefs front seven that has allowed 4.8 YPR. Granted, Kansas City’s defense is getting healthier, but Cook’s bid for the 2019 rushing title took one on the chin last Sunday.
Minnesota’s 4.7 yards per play – a popular metric among bettors – was well below its season-to-date mark of 6.2. The dink-and-dime stuff often costs visiting teams.
Speaking of yards per play, the Vikings defense has started to regress somewhat. While they rank 10th in YAPP on the season at 5.2, they’ve allowed 6.2 YPP over their past three games, sixth-most in the league during that stretch. To be fair, of the 147 rush yards they allowed to the Chiefs, 91 came on one play. So, if you ignore that, they allowed 56 yards on 17 rush attempts. This is what Vikings backers want to see ahead of a matchup against Ezekiel Elliott.
On the injury front, the Vikings lost wide receiver Adam Thielen for the second time in three weeks due to a hamstring injury. It appears he rushed back from the original pulled hammy and this one is going to cost him more time. Don’t expect him out there against the Cowboys. As head coach Mike Zimmer said, “Whenever the doctor says he’s ready.” He’s not ready.
Dallas News and Notes
The Cowboys (-7) turned three Giants turnovers into 13 points on Monday night and that was the difference between an ATS win and loss to New York.
Ezekiel Elliott rushed for a season-high 139 yards on 6.0 yards per carry. Zeke is averaging 118.3 rush yards per game over his past three contests.
The Cowboys pass rush finished with 12 hits and five sacks on rookie Daniel Jones. Saquon Barkley was held to 24 rush yards on 12 carries as the front seven dominated all four quarters. Dallas has allowed the seventh-fewest rush yards per game over its past three at just 90.3 RYAPG. With Dalvin Cook coming off one of his worst games, another challenge awaits Sunday night.
The Cowboys and Vikings allow an average of just 35.4 combined points per game this season, but Minnesota’s points allowed per game average is up more than four points per game over its past three games (21.7 PAPG).
Betting Pick: Cowboys -2.5 & UNDER
Kirk Cousins’ track record speaks for itself as he melts under the prime-time lights and with this game on the road, I’d expect no different. The Dallas pass rush will harass him all night and without Adam Thielen, the accuracy issues continue.