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49ers Home Favorites Over Vikings

The Minnesota Vikings visit the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12.

The San Francisco 49ers (5-5 SU, 4-6 ATS) are 3-1 SU and ATS over their last four games since going 0-4 SU and ATS in their previous four. The 49ers will be trying to earn a third straight win Sunday when they host the Minnesota Vikings (5-5, 6-4).

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers
  • Date/Time: November 28, 4:25 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: 49ers -2.5 | O/U 52 (Line History)
  • Vikings vs 49ers Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The 49ers opened as 2.5-point favorites at home and have since moved up slightly to San Francisco -3. The total has also seen a slight uptick to 48.5 points after opening at 48 points. The UNDER is 7-1 in San Francisco’s last eight games against Minnesota.

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Minnesota News & Notes

Kirk Cousins went 24-for-35 for 341 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions in Minnesota’s 34-31 upset win as 1.5-point home underdogs against the Green Bay Packers.

Cousins is enjoying a great season to date with 2,775 passing yards, 21 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. Justin Jefferson is also red-hot at wide receiver with eight catches for 169 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday, one week after he caught nine passes for 143 yards against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Minnesota’s entire season has come down to just a few big plays. All but one of the Vikings’ 10 games have been decided by a touchdown or less, and six of those nine games have been decided by four points or less. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS as a betting underdog with three outright upsets in those six games.

San Francisco News & Notes

San Francisco followed up its 31-10 win over the Los Angeles Rams with another dominant performance last Sunday, defeating the Jaguars 30-10 in Jacksonville.

Wide receiver Deebo Samuel was San Francisco’s leading rusher in the win with 79 rushing yards and a touchdown on eight carries. Jimmy Garoppolo was efficient under center, going 16-for-22 with 176 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions.

Running back Elijah Mitchell missed the game with a finger injury and is listed as questionable to return against the Vikings. The 49ers will be looking to build off of their win at home over the Rams. San Francisco had been 0-8 SU and 1-7 ATS in its previous eight home games.

How Minnesota Will Cover

San Francisco has been able to sit in its comfort zone each of the last two weeks, taking an early lead and coasting the rest of the way on its defense and running game. The Vikings can disrupt this pattern and score an upset with another big day on offense led by Kirk Cousins.

How San Francisco Will Cover

Just about all of Minnesota’s games have been close this season, and that should play into the 49ers’ strengths. As long as San Francisco can establish its running game and avoid mistakes on offense, there should be a path to a win and cover in a tight matchup at home.

Computer Pick: 49ers -3

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Shark Bites
  • Minnesota is 4-1 ATS over its last 5 games.
  • SF is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games vs NFC teams.
  • The UNDER is 4-1 in SF’s last 5 November games.