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Despite winning seven in a row, Vikings are road dogs vs Falcons

What more do the Minnesota Vikings have to do to get some love from sportsbooks? The Vikings are 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and are coming off convincing wins over the Lions and Rams. Well, they now face the resurgent Atlanta Falcons, who have won four of their last five games and are back in playoff contention in the NFC. The Falcons opened as 3-point favorites in one of the key battles of Week 13.

  • The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Vikings’ last 11 games as underdog.
  • The Falcons are 13-1 SU and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against the NFC.
  • Vikings receiver Adam Thielen is third in the NFL with 1,005 receiving yards.

Sure, Case Keenum isn’t everyone’s first pick for their quarterback but other than Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, who really is? Every other QB in the NFL has a weakness that can be exploited and Keenum is doing his best to negate them. Keenum’s label as a “game manager” for the Vikings may be true but when you have an elite defense behind you, you’re not expected to take over games. The Vikings defense is top-five in points allowed (17.7) and they’re true run-stuffers, only allowing opposing backs to gain an average of 75.5 yards per game. This will be the first time the Vikings have been underdogs since Week 6, when they “accidentally” knocked Rodgers out with a broken clavicle.

Atlanta is getting a lot of love from experts and analysts now that they’re 7-4 SU. But their most recent wins seem a bit hollow. Tampa, Dallas and the Jets are not contenders, with a combined W-L record of 13-20, and the Seahawks are a shell of themselves now due to injuries to their secondary. The Falcons’ strengths of running back Tevin Coleman and receiver Julio Jones will be put to the test to make an impact and the Falcons may have to game-plan some different looks to other skill players in order to escape with a victory. An additional subplot for the Falcons offense will be if Julio Jones can repeat last week’s performance versus the Vikings’ Pro Bowl cornerback, Xavier Rhodes. Rhodes has matched up against Jones twice in his career and held him to an average of 69 yards receiving.

The total opened at 47 points and bettors may want to consider the OVER in this Week 13 slugfest. Atlanta is averaging 28 points per game in its last four games and, not to be outdone, Minnesota is averaging just under 30 points per game in its last five. When you factor in that both of these teams play in a dome and the OVER has hit in 13 of Atlanta’s last 16 home games, the OVER could come through by the third quarter.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Minnesota Vikings were listed as 2.5-point underdogs at sportsbooks such as TopBet, with the total listed at 47.5.

OddsShark computer NFL score prediction models picked a possible 25-23 win for the Vikings on Sunday. That score may change during the week, if injury or weather factors alter the numbers, so check the NFL picks page before game time. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Minnesota Vikings will try to spoil the party on Sunday; they are 8-3 against the spread this season, while the Atlanta Falcons are 5-6 ATS. Minnesota is 6-5 on the OVER/UNDER betting totals; Atlanta is 5-6. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Atlanta vs Minnesota injuries news.

The Falcons sit at No. 10 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Vikings are at No. 8 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Atlanta's No. 11-ranked offense, averaging 24.09 PPG, against a Vikings defense that ranks No. 5 this week at 17.73 PPG. The Falcons aerial game is averaging 256.55 yards per game, more than the Vikings secondary allows through the air, 214.91 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Vikings own the league's No. 6-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 93.2 yards per game when on the road. Atlanta, on the other hand, rates No. 8 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Case Keenum threw a pair of TD passes in Minnesota's last match, defeating Detroit 30-23 in Week 12 action on Thursday.

Matt Ryan's 317-yard performance through the air was enough last time out, as Atlanta earned a 34-20 win over Tampa Bay on Sunday at Mercedes-Benz Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
  • Minnesota is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 games on the road
  • Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 18 of Atlanta's last 25 games
  • Atlanta is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 13 of Atlanta's last 16 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

Minnesota at Carolina, Sunday, December 10
Atlanta home to New Orleans, Thursday, December 7