This weekend’s Week 7 matchup between the Vikings and Jets will mark only the fourth time since 1997 that Minnesota has played on Gang Green’s home turf. The Vikes are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in those previous meetings, the last of which occurred back in 2010. As for 2018, Minnesota’s 10-point win over Arizona was a point-spread push to drop them to 3-2-1 straight up and 2-2-2 against the spread, while the Jets’ win and cover against the Colts improved their record to 3-3 straight up and against the spread. With both teams riding two-game win streaks, the Vikings are 3-point road favorites, with a +136 Jets home moneyline and a point total of 47.
- The total has gone OVER in six of the Jets’ last eight games at home (avg. combined score: 51.25).
- The total has gone OVER in three of the Vikings’ last four games on the road (avg. combined score: 54.0).
- The Vikings are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games as favorite.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 7
Vikings – Adam Thielen may not be considered the “best” NFL receiver (yet), but he’s definitely one of the most consistent. His 58 receptions through six games are an NFL record and after posting 123 receiving yards against the Cardinals, the Vikings’ target became the first player since 1961 to start a season with six consecutive 100-yard receiving games.
The Jets have allowed 272 pass yards per game to rank 23rd against the pass.
Don’t get too excited about Latavius Murray’s career-high 155 rush yards against Arizona. The Cardinals rush defense allows the second-most rush yards per game at 151 per contest.
Kirk Cousins has lost five fumbles and thrown three picks through six games. That may not cost you a straight-up win, but it’ll definitely cost when laying some points.
Jets – Jason Myers set a Jets franchise record by connecting on seven of seven field-goal attempts with three from 45 yards and beyond.
Granted, the Colts pass defense is Swiss-cheese city, but Sam Darnold’s 80 percent completion rate against Indy marked the first time he completed better than 50 percent of his passes since Week 2. He may be without Quincy Enunwa against the Vikings. The team leader in targets left the game against the Colts with an ankle injury and did not return.
Minnesota ranks 20th against the pass and has allowed 267 yards per contest.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: BIG APPLE TURNOVERS
The new-look Jets’ 15 takeaways rank second in the league behind the new-look Browns. Turnovers have cost the Vikings wins straight up and against the spread through the first six weeks. It’s Cousins’ interceptions and fumbles on Minnesota’s side of the 50-yard line that have me nervous when backing Skol. These gifts the Vikings handed the Cardinals and Bills – teams they should steamroll – were the difference in not covering the spread against Arizona and handed Josh Allen a short field to work with and provided Buffalo the momentum it needed to pull off one of the great upsets.
That anxiety will linger on into Week 7 because since 2015, the Jets are 22-12-3 against the spread when forcing one or more turnovers compared to 3-13-1 ATS when they fail to force a turnover.
EAST RUTHERFORD, NJ FORECAST
Mostly sunny with temperatures in the low 50s, only a 10 percent chance of rain and low humidity.
Following his record-setting performance, Myers has now connected on 16 of 17 field-goal tries and 15 of 16 extra points. After missing two field goals two weeks ago at Philly, Minnesota’s Dan Bailey converted two field goals and three extra points against the Cardinals.
MY PICK
It sounds like Minnesota’s already depleted defense may have lost cornerback Mike Hughes for the season due to a torn ACL. With Darnold and the Jets offense improving, this isn’t great news for the visiting Vikings. Mike Zimmer’s squad may have won two straight games, but they aren’t the NFC favorite many of us thought they were at the start of the season. Cousins and/or one of their running backs is going to turn the ball over and the Jets will capitalize on those mistakes. That’ll be the difference and how the Jets pull off the upset at home.
