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Monday Night Football Odds Analysis & Pick: Eagles at Bears

This is a quick breakdown of the odds for the NFL Monday nighter, which I’ll be doing each week. 

I had leans on the Steelers and Niners last week, who both came through, but this analysis is more about helping the recreational bettor understand the lines rather than just the picks. 

On to the Eagles and Bears... 

This line opened with the Bears as -1.5 favorites at the earliest spots and then quickly moved up to -2.5 and then -3. As of this morning, it was -3 at most spots.

I really think the line move here was more about an oddsmaker adjustment rather than big betting dollars driving the line up. 

The books floated out an early line that was too low, thinking bettors were impressed by the Eagles last week and not so impressed by the Bears. When they didn't really see the reaction to the initial number they anticipated, they moved this line up to where they thought it should be with the home Bears laying a field goal. 

Remember that oddsmakers are trying to predict market perception, unlike bettors, who are trying to guess the game outcome. 

The adjustment looks like a good one because action is pretty split. The OddsShark bettor consensus also has 52 percent on the Bears and 48 percent on the Eagles. 

When it comes to the total, you can usually count on OVER money for the Monday nighter because it’s a more public game every week. The industry tendency is still that most bettors would prefer to play the OVER.  That’s the case again tonight and you can bet books expected that, so it’s not uncommon to see slightly inflated totals on Mondays. 

The OVER/UNDER opened at 43 and moved down a tiny bit to 42.5 early in the week but I won’t be surprised to see action push this number back up a little before kickoff. 

The play: I’m going with the Bears here. I think Week 1 is a little misleading for both these teams. Home field is going to help Chicago even though this team went just 1-7 on home soil last season. Eagles rookie QB Carson Wentz looked solid in Week 1, and I was on the Eagles there, but the Monday night spotlight on the road is a whole different ballgame. 

Good luck with your wagers.  

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