After missing last week’s game against the Dolphins due to a hamstring injury, reports point to Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota suiting up tonight against Indianapolis. Although he may not be 100 percent, it may be better than Tennessee’s QB2 – Matt Cassel – whose offense produced only 188 total yards against Miami.
While Mariota’s matchup is delicious, facing the Colts’ 30th-ranked pass defense, backing his prop bets do come with inherent risks of re-injury and/or hamstring tweak. Sam Bradford returned from a knee injury too soon and exited his last game early. Mariota’s ailing hamstring needs to be factored into any potential prop bet investments. For that reason, I’m fading.
All prop odds courtesy of Sportsbook.
Jacoby Brissett Pass Attempts O/U 33 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-105)
Like the Colts, the Titans pass defense is bad, allowing 235 pass yards on 35 pass attempts per game. In his four starts, Brissett has hit this particular OVER twice. However, both of those games went into overtime. Against the Browns, another horrible pass defense, he finished with 24 attempts and playing from behind against the Seahawks, 29. The 33 attempts is a good ceiling for Brissett, but no more.
Jacoby Brissett Pass TDs O/U 1 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-170)
I know the vig on this is expensive, but it’s for a reason. Brissett has two starts without a touchdown pass and two games with just one TD toss. Now, the Titans have allowed 12 passing touchdowns this season – third-most in the NFL. However, the quarterbacks who threw 2 or more touchdowns were Derek Carr in Week 1, Russell Wilson in Week 3 and Deshaun Watson in Week 4. The QBs who threw fewer than two TDs: Blake Bortles and Jay Cutler. Which group would Brissett fall into?
T.Y. Hilton Rec. Yards O/U 69 ½
The Bet: OVER (-135)
Hilton is averaging 120 receiving yards per game over the past three weeks. He torched the 49ers (27th-ranked rec. defense) for 177 yards and Browns (16th-ranked rec. defense) for 153 yards. In both games, Brissett and Hilton connected on a pass play of 60+ yards. The Titans are allowing 7 yards per pass play.
DeMarco Murray Rush Yards O/U 67 ½
The Bet: OVER (-125)
Aside from a 75-yard touchdown run, Murray has struggled the first five weeks of the season. Despite a call for Derrick Henry to get more touches per game, Murray remains the lead back. Still, he has yet to carry the ball more than 14 times in a game. That changes tonight against a Colts rush defense that allows more than 100 yards per game. Murray is more of a weapon in the Titans backfield with Mariota active. He’ll get 15-18 carries.
