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NFL MVP Odds: Brady Alone At The Top

Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady now leads NFL MVP odds with a price of +225 in sports betting markets.

We’re through 12 weeks of the 2021 NFL season and we have seen significant movement on the NFL MVP oddsboard. The top players on the board seem to trade spots every week with three names standing out above the rest.

Tom Brady is now the sole leader in NFL MVP odds over at Bovada at +250. Josh Allen (+450), Aaron Rodgers (+600), Patrick Mahomes (+900) and Kyler Murray (+1000) round out the top five. The top non-quarterback in MVP odds is Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (+1800).

Here’s a look at the players with the best odds to win the 2021 NFL MVP Award. For a full list of the top places to bet on football, head over to our best NFL betting sites page.

Who Is Favored In NFL MVP Odds?

2021 NFL MVP Odds
Tom Brady+250
Josh Allen+450
Aaron Rodgers+600
Patrick Mahomes+900
Kyler Murray+1000
Dak Prescott+1400
Matthew Stafford+1400
Lamar Jackson+1500
Jonathan Taylor+1800
Justin Herbert+1800
Derek Carr+5000
Kirk Cousins+5000
Joe Burrow+5500
Cooper Kupp+7500
Mac Jones+10000
Ryan Tannehill+10000
Jalen Hurts+15000
Aaron Donald+20000
Carson Wentz+20000
Deebo Samuel+20000
Jimmy Garoppolo+20000
Matt Ryan+20000
Myles Garrett+20000
Travis Kelce+20000

Odds as of November 30 at Bovada

NFL MVP Odds Betting Strategy

What makes an MVP? If we look back at past MVPs, there are important commonalities among the winners that can help us narrow the list of potential candidates in 2021 NFL MVP odds.

Firstly, it’s going to be a quarterback. Only two non-QBs have won the award in the last 15 years and both of those were extreme outlier seasons (Adrian Peterson 2,000 yards rushing, LaDainian Tomlinson 31 touchdowns). Derrick Henry had more than 2,000 yards rushing last season and didn’t come close to winning the award.

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The other two major factors in determining the NFL MVP are team wins and passing touchdowns.  

Since 2010, Matt Ryan is the only player to win the MVP on a team that had fewer than 12 wins. And in that span, 10 of the 11 MVPs (Peterson being the outlier) finished either first (five times), second (three times) or third (twice) in passing touchdowns that season.

So, we’re looking for players who are going to be on one of the top couple of teams in the league and also have a chance at finishing in the top two or three in passing TDs.

These factors narrow the list considerably. Kirk Cousins? Don’t count on it. Matt Ryan? Not going to happen.

So who ARE the legitimate candidates in NFL MVP odds? Let’s take a look at some options.

The Aaron Rodgers Factor

It appears that this will be the final season for Rodgers in a Packers uniform, so does he stick it to the organization one last time with another sublime season? Or does he fall below the expectations set last year and fizzle out in his Packers swan song? 

Rodgers appeared to be leaning to the former before missing Week 9 on the COVID list and making a ton of fans and media angry by lying about his vaccination status. However, the drama was short-lived as Rodgers returned in Week 10 and helped pick up the win for the Packers over Seattle.

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At +1100 just a couple of weeks ago, it seemed pretty unlikely voters would hand him a second consecutive MVP trophy. But Rodgers is now down to +600 – third in NFL MVP odds – and very much in the conversation.

ARod is tied for sixth in the league with 23 touchdowns and has thrown just four interceptions. The Packers are 9-3.

NFL MVP Odds Favorites

Tom Brady (+250)

If we follow our criteria for possible MVP candidates, Brady quarterbacking possibly the top team in the NFC puts him squarely in the conversation.

He has one of the deepest groups of pass catchers in the league and an elite offensive line, so getting the requisite touchdown numbers shouldn’t be too much of an issue (he’s first in passing TDs through 12 weeks).

And on top of that, the narratives surrounding Brady’s age and run at a Super Bowl repeat write themselves.

The question now is whether the Bucs really are that top team in the NFC. Back-to-back losses to inferior opponents in Weeks 9 and 10 with Brady throwing a couple of poor interceptions didn’t help. But the Bucs and Brady bounced back with a 30-10 win over the Giants on Monday night in Week 11 and a big win over the surging Colts on the road in Week 12. 

At +1400 about a month ago, the value on Brady has vanished quickly. 

Josh Allen (+450)

Allen had the Buffalo Bills looking like one of the best teams in the league after seven games, blowing teams out in the process. But questions about Allen’s play started to pop up after a couple of bad losses.

However, a road win over the Saints on Thanksgiving has kept his MVP stock high. 

He is tied for third in touchdown passes with 25 and has turned the ball over 12 times. The Bills are a good team and Allen should be better moving forward, but there are players with equal or better stats and longer odds.

We’re placing our bets elsewhere for now.

NFL MVP Odds Players To Consider

Matthew Stafford (+1400)

It was a great start to the year for Matthew Stafford and the Rams, who jumped out to a 7-1 record near the halfway point of the season. At one point in that span, Stafford was the leader in NFL MVP odds with the Rams offense humming.

The Rams have lost three straight games since then to the Titans, 49ers and Packers and there seems to be a narrative forming around the poor play of the team and its prized addition at quarterback.

But those three losses were far from embarrassing and Stafford’s stats have stayed near the top of the league despite the slide. He is second in the NFL in touchdowns, third in yards and second in QBR this season. 

There’s no doubt that losing receiver Robert Woods for the season hurts. But the Rams have winnable games against the Jaguars, Seahawks and Vikings along with three divisional matchups the rest of the way. If they can finish with four or five more wins, Stafford should shake his negative label and be right back in the NFL MVP conversation.

That's worth betting on at +1400.

Kyler Murray (+1000)

Murray skyrocketed up this list after a couple of sublime offensive performances that have given the Cardinals one of the better records in the league.

He is first in the league in completion percentage but is now down to 25th in passing yards and 11th in passing touchdowns after missing the Cardinals’ last three games due to injury. 

He will need some big statistical games to keep pace with the league’s other top passers.

However, we love the value his injury has created as other top players falter around him.

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NFL MVP Odds Best Bet: Dak Prescott (+1400)

Prescott has come back impressively after suffering a season-ending injury last year and limping into this season with a different injury. The Cowboys QB has his team at 7-4 with big wins over the Chargers, Patriots and Panthers. Prescott has 22 touchdowns and seven interceptions and is fourth in the league in completion percentage.

A big win over the Falcons in Week 10 had Prescott down to +750, but ugly losses to the Chiefs in Week 11 and Raiders in Week 12 has restored some value.

The problem for Prescott right now is the health of the weapons around him, but we think he’s got a great chance to put up big numbers moving forward and stay near the top of the oddsboard.

The Cowboys get the Saints, Washington (x2), Eagles, Giants and Cardinals for their final six games. Giddy-up.

How To Bet On NFL MVP Odds

Popular NFL bets include point spreads and totals (OVER/UNDER). For those looking for something different, you can wager on which player will be named MVP. As the NFL season progresses, you’ll see the MVP action changing. To get in on the action, you can make a futures bet.

What Is A Futures Bet?

A futures wager is a bet on events that will take place in time, like the Most Valuable Player award in the NFL. At your betting site of choice, you’ll see NFL MVP odds listed like so:

Patrick Mahomes +400

Aaron Rodgers +700

Josh Allen +800

Dak Prescott +1300

Unlike a moneyline bet where favorites would be marked with the minus sign (-) and underdogs with the plus sign (+), the fave here would be the player with the lowest odds. In this case it’s Patrick Mahomes.

Let’s say you have $100 to spend and you decide that you like Mahomes for MVP. A winning bet would give you a payout of $500 – your original $100 is returned along with your loot of $400. The higher the odds, the more money you’ll see. But, don’t bet on a +5000 MVP candidate in September in the hopes that you’ll make bank at the end of the regular season. Oddsmakers don’t only look at current performance when setting the odds. They also look at past performance, offseason activities and training camp.

Our Odds Calculator can show you how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.

With futures bets, it’s important to snag odds early. As we get closer to the Super Bowl, the lines will move. Oddsmakers update the odds as players up their production or are plagued by injuries. Keep in mind that if you were to back a player in the MVP race and he suffers a season-ending injury, most sportsbooks will give you your money back since you technically didn’t lose the bet and have no way of winning it.

As soon as the Most Valuable Player trophy is awarded to the winner, sportsbooks will update the betting results and you can cash out your bet.