Patriots vs Cardinals Picks & Odds: Arizona Going For Upset Off Bye Week

The Arizona Cardinals (4-8 SU, 6-6 ATS) return from their bye week to host the New England Patriots (6-6, 6-5-1) as small home underdogs on Monday Night Football in what’s essentially a must-win game for either team’s playoff hopes. The Cardinals likely need to win out to have any shot at making the postseason in the NFC after dropping four of their last five, while the Patriots cannot afford to see their skid reach three straight losses and fall below the .500 mark before an AFC matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders on a short week.

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Patriots vs Cardinals Sportsbook Odds

As the last game of Week 14, there is still plenty of time to see some line movement on this one. But as of Tuesday afternoon, neither the point spread nor the total had budged in either direction. The lines seem priced just right based on the betting trends listed below, especially with regard to the total, which is right in the middle of where their recent games have closed if you took an average between the two teams. Arizona’s poor play at home lately definitely factors into why the hosts are underdogs, and the coaching mismatch between Kliff Kingsbury and New England’s Bill Belichick does too considering what is on the line.

Get the best Patriots vs Cardinals odds and lines available from our recommended sportsbooks for your favorite picks of the night.

New England’s Offense Remains a Concern Heading Down Stretch

The Patriots saw their defense falter on Thanksgiving night in a 33-26 loss to the Minnesota Vikings, the only time in their last five games that the total finished OVER. Otherwise, the offense has been an issue even when they have been winning during this stretch, with Belichick recently acknowledging that it is simply “too hard” to make any significant scheme changes this late in the season. He noted that consistency – or a lack thereof – has been the problem hurting New England with second-year quarterback Mac Jones under center.

Jones reportedly wanted to see more deep pass plays called in last Thursday’s 24-10 home loss to the Buffalo Bills, which was the basis for his sideline outburst. He threw for a career-high 382 yards and two touchdowns the week before at Minnesota, but his team was trading scores throughout in an unusually high-scoring affair.

Arizona Has Yet Another Chance for a Strong Finish to Season

The Cardinals have been among the worst closers in the NFL under Kingsbury, meaning they have not played well  in the second half of seasons with him at the helm since he took over in 2019. For a team full of talented players, those bad finishes have been the difference between putting themselves in position for a positive playoff run and not.

They have made the postseason once in four seasons with Kingsbury, losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams in last year’s wild-card round after dropping four of their last five regular-season games.

The bye should have helped some of Arizona’s key players get healthier, most notably quarterback Kyler Murray and wide receiver Marquise Brown, who just returned from a stint on IR due to a foot injury and had six catches for 46 yards in Week 12. Unfortunately for them, the Cardinals fell to the Rams 25-24 in that game as 2.5-point home dogs.

Patriots: Keys To Victory

New England does not face another divisional opponent until Week 17 when the team hosts the Miami Dolphins, so the next three games will be a good test to find out if this is a playoff-worthy squad. The Patriots can win all three if they play their cards right – no pun intended – and Belichick is the biggest key. If he believes in his current players, most notably Jones, then he can out-coach Kingsbury and help the Patriots earn a much-needed win. The spread may not hit 3 before kickoff, so a field-goal win covers it.

Cardinals: Keys To Victory

No matter what you think of him, Murray is one of the most dangerous signal-callers in the league. Arizona wins and loses primarily based on how he performs, and New England has been known to struggle when defending running quarterbacks (i.e. Buffalo’s Josh Allen, Justin Fields of the Chicago Bears and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens earlier this year). The Cardinals need to take advantage of that weakness and exploit it like those other teams did. If they do, they can pull off the upset.  

NFL Computer Pick: Cardinals +1.5 

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