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Bills, Patriots Meet Again In Wild-Card Showdown

Fresh off their second straight AFC East title, the Bills (11-6 SU, 9-6-2 ATS) host the nemesis Patriots (10-7, 10-7) in the opening round of the playoffs. The Odds Shark computer’s Patriots vs Bills prediction favors the Bills, but New England has won nine of its last 10 visits to Orchard Park.

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Patriots vs Bills Odds & Analysis

Opening Odds

The Bills were favored by a touchdown or more in all but one of their home games this year — a Week 13 Monday Night Football meeting with the Patriots, when windy conditions caused the line to close with Buffalo as 3-point chalk. Oddsmakers opened Buffalo as a 4.5-point home favorite this time, though the line had dropped to as low as 3.5 points by the time of writing.

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Jones, Patriots Struggled In Final Month Of Regular Season

After going on a seven-game winning streak to briefly take the lead in the AFC East, New England limps into the playoffs with a 1-3 SU and ATS record in its last four. Slow starts have recently been an issue for the Pats, who faced first-half deficits of 13 points or more in each of those three losses. That includes a 20-7 hole when these teams last met on Boxing Day in Foxborough.

When making your Patriots vs Bills prediction, you certainly need to account for a dropoff in production from rookie quarterback Mac Jones. Favored to win the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award a month ago, Jones struggled down the stretch, throwing six touchdowns and five interceptions in his final five contests.

Bills’ League-Leading Defense Has Had Difficulty Stopping Patriots Run Game

Josh Allen and the offense get a lot of attention, but the key to a winning Patriots vs Bills prediction could be the Buffalo defense. That unit couldn’t have been more dominant in Buffalo’s 27-10 victory over the Jets last week, setting a franchise record by allowing just four first downs, holding New York to 53 net yards and recording nine sacks.

Overall, Buffalo finished the season ranked first in the NFL in total yards allowed, passing yards allowed and points allowed. But if the defense has a weakness, it’s on the ground. New England ran for 372 yards and four touchdowns in the two meetings between the squads this season, including 222 in its 14-10 road upset of the Bills in Week 13.

Patriots vs Bills Pick & Insights

Patriots: Keys To Cover

You can never count out Bill Belichick and his team as an underdog, especially against the Bills. If they can run the ball as effectively as they did in their two earlier meetings with Buffalo this season, the Patriots should be live to earn their 10th victory in their last 11 trips to Orchard Park.

Bills: Keys To Cover

Stopping the run will obviously be a big key for the Bills, who are 3-4 SU this year when allowing 100 or more rushing yards. But a fast start will also be important for Buffalo in order to settle in and keep the fans energized. The Bills are 8-0 SU when scoring a touchdown on their first possession.

Odds Shark’s Computer Patriots vs Bills Prediction: Bills -4.5

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Shark Bites
  • New England is 1-3 SU and ATS in its last 4 games.
  • Buffalo is 4-0 SU and 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 games.
  • New England is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at Buffalo.

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