Patriots Heavy Favorites To End Losing Skid Against Bengals

The Patriots have lost two straight but are still 10-3 and have the inside track on both the division title and a first-round bye. They’re double-digit road favorites against a 1-12 Bengals squad, but with their offensive stumbling and ATS struggles in December, is Cincinnati actually the best play?

Sportsbook Odds Analysis

The Patriots have lost four of their last five ATS and their last four games have all been decided by fewer than 10 points. It says a lot about their struggles that a 10-3 team opens as just a 10-point favorite in a must-win game against a 1-12 team. The total opened low at 40.5 points, as both offenses have been subpar for most of the season and the Pats still possess one of the stingiest defenses in the league.

New England News & Notes

The Patriots are 10-3 and are sitting in the driver’s seat for a division title and a first-round bye. So why is there so much unease coming out of Foxborough?

Because the offense continues to stumble, and following last week’s 23-16 loss to Kansas City, the Patriots have now dropped two straight games and saw their 21-game home winning streak snapped.

Tom Brady completed just 53 percent of his passes for 169 yards, but what’s more scary is that Brady ran for 20 yards … and was 13 yards shy of leading the team. New England ran for just 95 yards on the day, the fifth time in the past seven games it failed to top 100 rushing yards as a team.

New England is in the bottom third of the league in rushing this season but on Sunday faces a Bengals defense that ranks dead last in rushing defense. Look for the Patriots to exploit the Bengals’ biggest weakness as they try to notch their sixth ATS win in their last seven games against Cincinnati. 

Cincinnati News & Notes

The Bengals secured their first victory of the season in Week 13 with a dominating win against the Jets, but in Week 14 they failed to make it two in a row, losing 27-19 to intra-state rival Cleveland.

Cincinnati’s offense was carried by running back Joe Mixon, who had 23 rushes for 146 yards and a touchdown, while adding three receptions for 40 yards. It was the former Pro Bowler’s best game of the season, and he will need to deliver another monster game this week against a New England defense that has completely shut down opposing passing games … but can be run on somewhat.

The Bengals may be a massive underdog on Sunday, but they’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as a double-digit underdog. If Mixon can run the ball well and the defense continues to harass opposing passers, Cincinnati may have a chance.

Betting Pick: Bengals +10

The Bengals are the league’s worst team, but they can rush the passer and New England’s offense hasn’t shown any ability to blow a team out. They won’t win, but I can see the Bengals covering.