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Jets are Double-Digit Home Dogs vs Banged-Up Patriots

The New England Patriots are double-digit road favorites for the third time this season.

Matchup Information
  • New England Patriots vs New York Jets (Matchup Report)
  • Date/Time: October 21, 8:15 p.m. ET
  • TV Coverage: ESPN
  • Opening Odds: New England -10 | O/U 43.5 (Line History)

Opening Odds Analysis

The Patriots opened as 10-point road favorites. New York’s moneyline opened at +395 and the point total opened at 43.5 before a pull-back to 43.

New England improved to 6-0 straight up and 4-2 against the spread after dismantling the Giants 35-14. Sam Darnold’s return from mono allowed the Jets to pick up their first win of the season and improve to 2-3 ATS this season.

The UNDER has hit in eight of the Patriots’ past 10 games when they’ve been road favorites of 10 to 14 points. If the opening line holds, it’ll mark only the second time in our database’s history, which dates back to 1984, that the Jets are home dogs of 10 or more points.

New England News and Notes

The Patriots played one of their sloppiest games last Thursday and still managed to score 35 points, win and cover a 16.5-point spread. New England won time of possession against the Giants 40-20 as Daniel Jones and New York converted just two third downs and committed four turnovers that the Patriots turned into 14 points.

Injuries to the Patriots offense are starting to mount and when concerns over lack of depth already linger, it’s not a great recipe for success and, ya know, covering double-digit spreads. Josh Gordon injured his knee against the Giants but is expected to play against the Jets. Fellow receiver Phillip Dorsett has already been ruled out, while Julian Edelman continues to play through a chest injury. Running back Rex Burkhead is questionable. On defense, Patrick Chung left the Giants game with a chest injury, while Dont’a Hightower is now dealing with a shoulder injury.

The two reasons why the Jets covered +21 back in Week 3 were:

1)      A Patriots muffed punt recovered by New York in the end zone.

2)      A Jarrett Stidham pick-six in relief of Tom Brady.

Otherwise, Patriots win and cover 30-0 against the Luke Falk-led Jets.

New York News and Notes

It’s easy to appreciate Sam Darnold’s talent when you’ve watched Trevor Siemian and Luke Falk the past month. However, the Jets’ franchise quarterback was sharp in his return from mono against a top-10 defense. Darnold completed 23 of 32 passes for 338 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. New York did struggle on third downs, converting just two of 10 opportunities. For as well as the Jets defense played for three and a half quarters, they didn’t force a turnover and only got to Dak Prescott once. In order to compete and hang with the Patriots, you need points off turnovers and pressure on Tom Brady.

In his only other meeting with the Patriots, Darnold completed just 16 of his 28 passes for 167 yards and was sacked four times in a 38-3 loss.

Betting Pick: Patriots -10

The Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last four night games. With a total of 43, the expectation is New England scores 28 to 35 again, which doesn’t leave a lot of room for the Jets to cover. The Jets defense is going to let Sam Darnold down as Tom Brady (on extra rest) picks their secondary apart again.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in 13 of the Patriots’ last 18 games (avg. combined score: 42.17).
  • The Jets are 1-8 SU and 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs divisional foes.
  • The Patriots are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games vs the Jets (avg. winning margin: 19.29).