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Rookie Quarterbacks Make Great UNDER Play In New York

Mac Jones faces other rookie QB Zach Wilson

When these teams met in New York last year, veterans Cam Newton and Joe Flacco were under center as the Patriots (0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS) scored 13 points in the fourth quarter to pull out a 30-27 win over the Jets (0-1, 0-1). This week, both teams are running out rookie quarterbacks who will be making only their second career starts.

New England Patriots vs New York Jets
  • Date/Time: September 19, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: MetLife Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Patriots -3.5 | O/U 44 (Line History)
  • Patriots vs Jets Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

This game opened with New England as a -3.5 favorite. Although the Jets played the Patriots tough at home last year, the line has moved all the way to -5.5 and is even -6 at some places. It was announced early in the week that Jets starting LT Mekhi Becton will be out long term with a knee injury and that news may have helped push this line so quickly. The total opened at 44 but can be found at 42.5 now at some sportsbooks. Neither rookie QB put up a lot of points last week, although both Mac Jones and Zach Wilson played well in their first regular-season games.

New England News & Notes

Against Miami in Week 1, the Patriots had 14 minutes more time of possession and outgained the Dolphins by more than 130 yards. However, a key fourth-quarter turnover inside the red zone was the difference and New England dropped a 17-16 decision.

Rookie QB Mac Jones threw for over 275 yards, with a touchdown and no interceptions. Jones also completed over 70 percent of his passes and finished with a QB Rating of 102.6.

Despite his costly fourth-quarter fumble, running back Damien Harris had a good game, picking up 100 yards on 24 carries. Harris is currently outside the top 20 RBs on most DFS sites this week and might be an interesting low-cost play.

The New England defense held Miami to well under 300 yards of total offence and deserved a better fate in Week 1. It is expected that the Patriots will have some interesting looks for young Zach Wilson, making only his second career start. The Patriots defence is ranked in the top five on most DFS sites this week and will come at a price if you want them in your lineup.

New York News & Notes

Not only did the Jets lose in Week 1 against the Carolina Panthers, but it was their former QB Sam Darnold who beat them in his first start since being run out of town. Darnold hit another ex-Jet, Robby Anderson, for a 57-yard touchdown, rubbing more salt in the wounds. 

During his time as the New York signal-caller, Darnold was sacked 98 times in 38 career starts. Jets rookie QB Zach Wilson, after one start, has already been sacked six times.

Wilson did throw for 250-plus yards and two TDs in the loss against the Panthers, with one interception. The first-year QB from BYU finished with a QB Rating of 82.9.

If you believe that rookie QBs have trouble putting points on the board early in their careers, then the Jets defense might be an interesting DFS play this week. Mac Jones did look very poised in Week 1 vs Miami. However, the New York defense is priced outside the top 20 on most DFS sites this week and might be an interesting low-cost play.

Staff Betting Pick: UNDER 43

Both Zach Wilson and Mac Jones had impressive first starts and there is a chance they both develop into NFL stars. However, this is a tough league and very few QBs come in and start putting up big numbers right away. Expect one of them to have a down week, bringing the UNDER very much into play. Take the UNDER in this one.

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Shark Bites
  • The UNDER is 7-2 in New England’s last 9 games.
  • The UNDER is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
  • New England has won 10 straight vs the Jets.