The Bills and Patriots log another chapter in their lopsided series on Monday when the Empire of Evil invades Ralph Wilson Stadium as the second-biggest road favorite in MNF history. New England was, coincidentally, the biggest road fave in MNF history as well, when the Pats took on the Ravens in Baltimore laying 19 points during their undefeated 2017 season – they won by a field goal.
That said, I’m not expecting that to happen here. I need to get back in the Monday night win column and I’m pretty certain the 5-2 Pats will help me do that this week when they take on the worst team in the NFL.
- The Patriots are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite of 14 or more points.
- The Patriots won by 20 and 21 in their two games vs the Bills last season.
- The road team is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 MNF games.
The Public Loves New England Despite Massive Spread
The Patriots, 11-2-1 against the spread in their last 14 games in Buffalo, have been very rude guests of the Bills Mafia of late and bookmakers have responded accordingly, making them massive chalk in an attempt to get some money on the Bills. It’s not working. At the time of this writing, New England was receiving 63 percent of ATS bets.
While that’s an alarming consensus, it doesn’t scare me away from the Patriots at this number.
The Pats won this matchup by a combined 41 points last season and in my opinion, the Bills are much worse than they were in 2017 with Derek Anderson set to take the snaps for Buffalo on Monday.
Anderson was awful against the Colts last week, throwing three interceptions, losing a fumble and leading his offense to one field goal and no touchdowns – brutal.
Buffalo’s defense, which is supposed to be really good, got shredded for 220 rushing yards (376 total) and that number could’ve been much higher if they hadn’t handed Indy a short field on so many occasions.
Brady and Belichick, Still Good
Bill Belichick may be working with one of the least talented groups he’s had in a while but like he always does, he’s figured out how to make it work with the pieces he’s got (and added midseason) and the Colts drew up a perfect blueprint for how to dismantle the Bills.
Tom Brady, meanwhile, has managed to string together four solid weeks of quarterbacking, posting a passer rating of 94.2 or better in all of New England’s last four games. The additions of Josh Gordon and Julian Edelman have a lot to do with Brady’s recent success and with Gronk expected to play on Monday, TB12 will have a full array of weapons in the passing game for the first time this season.
If the Patriots figure out how to move the ball through the air on Monday, it’s going to be a long night for Sean McDermott and Buffalo bettors.
Best Bet for NE vs BUF: Patriots -13.5
Brady and Belichick always seem to find a way to screw me out of my hard-earned money whether I bet on them or against them but I can’t figure out a path for the Bills to cover this spread.
Feel absolutely free to fade me because I’d put my winning percentage at about 25 percent for betting on or against New England spreads over my career, but I feel like I’ve got a good grasp on this one.
