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Patriots Have a Very Profitable History in Buffalo

That headline shouldn’t come as much of a shock, but the fact that this run of profits goes back 30 years might be. New England is 20-8-3 ATS in its last 31 games in Buffalo and, more recently, 11-4-1 ATS during the Brady/Belichick era. The Patriots will look to add another cover to that record as a big favorite on Sunday, and look to continue another trend that’s seen them go 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Shark Bites
  • The Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.
  • Tom Brady has thrown for 13 TDs and 1 INT in his last five games.
  • The Patriots are 40-6 SU in their last 46 games in December.

Aside from their history of being a great bet in Buffalo, the Patriots also have a great history of beating the living crap out of the Bills as they’ve won 24 of the last 27 games between the teams, with the wins coming by an average of 16.3 points. Since its bye week, New England has scorched opponents, easily winning three games by an average of 22.6 points. The defense has really stepped up since showing some early-season holes, allowing just 13.1 points per game over the last seven.

The Bills look like a team that’s trying to tank, but they’re somehow botching their rebuild as their 6-5 SU record has them within striking distance of a playoff spot. They do have just one loss this season at home, where they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS, but this might be a great game to load up on Patriots in your fantasy leagues. The Bills are a mess on defense as they’ve allowed 36.25 points per game over their last four games, while at home this season they’re allowing 375.2 yards per game, which is bad enough for fifth-worst in the NFL.

The game features the highest total on the Week 13 board at 49 points and bettors will be interested to know that the total has gone OVER in five of the Bills’ last six games. The average combined score in those games was 53.5. The Patriots have been in plenty of high-scoring games this season as six of their games have reached the 50-point mark.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Those siding with the visitors in this matchup saw the New England Patriots listed as 8.5-point favorites at shops such as Bovada. Meanwhile, the OVER/UNDER line for the betting matchup was at 49 over at 5Dimes.

A 34-16 result in favor of the Patriots was the prediction by the OddsShark handicapping pick engine earlier this week. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Buffalo brings a 6-5 record (5-4-2 ATS) to the Week 13 matchup against the 9-2 New England Patriots, who are 7-4 against the spread. OVER/UNDER betting has seen Buffalo go 6-5 so far and the Patriots go 6-5. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Buffalo vs New England injuries news.

It's a betting matchup between the No. 22-rated Bills and the No. 2-ranked Patriots, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Buffalo Bills' No. 22-ranked offense (20.36 PPG) against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 11 at 20 PPG. The Bills passing attack has averaged 182.55 yards per game, less than the Patriots give up through the air (270.36 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 7-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 94.4 yards per game when on the road. Buffalo, on the other hand, rates No. 6 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

In their last game, the Patriots got 4 passing scores out of Tom Brady en route to a 35-17 win over the Dolphins on Sunday at Gillette Stadium.

The Bills grabbed a Week 12 victory over the Chiefs in their last game, winning 16-10 at Arrowhead Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
  • New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 15 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games
  • Buffalo is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
  • The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games
  • Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
  • The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England at Miami, Monday, December 11
Buffalo home to Indianapolis, Sunday, December 10