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Patriots Have Been a Rock-Bottom Bet in Denver

Tom Brady Patriots

There’s not many situations that the New England Patriots have consistently struggled in during the Brady/Belichick era, but they’ve absolutely stunk when playing in Denver. Going back to 2005, New England is 1-6 SU and ATS on the road vs the Broncos. This is significant because it’s the most SU road losses New England has against any team on the road during that span and is also tied for the most ATS road losses vs any team during that span.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records.
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Broncos' last eight games against teams with winning records.
  • Tom Brady has 15 TDs and 0 INTs on the road this season.

The Broncos have been much more than a thorn in the side of the Patriots over the years — it’s been more like a nail in the forehead. Going back even further, well before Tom Brady took over the world, the Patriots have a long history of being awful in Denver. Since 1984, they’ve gone 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS there. And one last handful of salt to rub in the wound — the Broncos are the only team that Tom Brady’s played more than three times that he has a losing record against (5-6 SU).

With the Broncos opening as an underdog in the 3-point range, bettors will be interested to know that Denver is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak as a home underdog. Denver is on a run of being a great bet as an underdog over the past few seasons, posting a 9-2-1 ATS mark in its last 12 games as a dog. In each of the games that the Broncos covered in during that stretch, they also won outright, making them an attractive moneyline option in this game.

Taking a look at the total, which opened in the ballpark of 44 points, bettors might want to give consideration to the UNDER, as the teams have combined to go UNDER in 14 of their last 20 games. Both defenses are allowing fewer than 19 points per game this season, while they’ve combined to allow an average of just 17.2 over their last three games.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

Betting fans looking to side with the Denver Broncos in this one found them as 3-point underdogs earlier in the week at [custom bodog-link], while the total was sitting at 44.

Odds Shark prediction models picked the Patriots to win this game on Sunday 26-20. Check the picks page or matchup report during the week as factors may cause that prediction to be re-run and see PredictionMachine.com for additional NFL picks. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Denver will face the 11-2 New England Patriots, who own a 10-3 ATS mark on the season. In totals betting, the Broncos are 6-7 so far this season while the Patriots are 5-7-1. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Denver vs New England injuries news.

It's a betting matchup between the No. 7-rated Denver Broncos and the No. 2-ranked New England Patriots, according to the NFL Power Rankings here at Odds Shark.

Statistical Matchup

Offensively, the game matches up the Denver Broncos No. 16-ranked offense (22.77 PPG) against a New England Patriots defense that ranks No. 2 at 17.69 PPG. The Broncos passing attack has averaged 234.23 yards per game, less than the Patriots give up through the air (248 YPG on average).

In comparing defenses, the New England Patriots own the league's No. 5-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 94.33 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 9 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time out, Tom Brady threw for 3 scores and 406 yards in leading his team past Baltimore at Gillette Stadium.

In their last game, Denver's aerial attack generated 334 yards but it was the Titans coming away with a 13-10 victory over Denver at Nissan Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
  • New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New England's last 10 games
  • New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
  • Denver is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
  • Denver is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
  • Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England home to New York, Saturday, December 24th
Denver at Kansas City, Sunday, December 25th

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