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Bad News Broncos in Brutal Spot vs Patriots

Are the Broncos really this pathetic? They’re now on a four-game SU and ATS losing streak where they’ve lost by an average of 18 points and things won’t get any easier with the Patriots coming to town for Sunday Night Football. With the spread hovering in the 7.5-point range favoring New England, this could be just the fourth time since 1980 that Denver closes as a home dog of 7 or more points.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 28-2 SU in their last 30 games as a road favorite of 7 or more points.
  • Brock Osweiler in two games vs the Pats last season — 1 TD, 4 INTs, 54.1 QB rating.
  • The Patriots are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games following a bye week.

If Broncos backers are looking for some positives coming into this game, there aren’t many, but there’s a few. They’re coming off three straight road games and have been much better at home this season where they’ve secured all three of their wins. And specific to this matchup is their long history of domination at home vs New England where they’ve gone 15-4 SU and 14-5 ATS since 1984. During the Brady/Belichick era, that record is 7-3 SU and ATS.

Now with that out of the way, LET’S GET SERIOUS. In Denver’s most recent home game, they were on the wrong end of one of the biggest upsets of the season, losing 23-10 to the Giants. The sample size is now big enough and it’s clear that this team is bad. And, oh yeah, Brock Osweiler is starting for the Broncos, which should only strengthen the case against them.

We, of course, know that this Patriots team isn’t as good as last season’s squad (yet), but they’re coming off four straight wins (3-1 ATS during that span) and are a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS on the road this season. They remain one of the league’s elite offenses, putting up 27 points per game, and should be able to exploit a suddenly slumping Denver D that gave up 51 points to the Eagles in Week 9. Add in the fact that the Patriots are coming off their bye week and are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games, and it appears to all be adding up to a Patriots cover on Sunday night.

A quick look at the total, which is sitting in the 46.5 range, shows that the Patriots might have to do the lion’s share of the work for this game to go OVER. Denver has topped 20 points in just three of its eight games this season while averaging just 13 points per game during a four-game losing streak.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The point spread was settled in at 7 for the host Denver Broncos earlier in the week, according to Bovada. The OVER/UNDER betting line was hovering around 46.5, with odds movement expected during the week at MyBookie.

OddsShark computer prediction handicapping models run on this game picked a 25-21 victory for the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

Denver will face the 6-2 New England Patriots, who own a 4-4 ATS mark on the season. In totals betting, the Broncos are 5-3 so far this season while the Patriots are 4-4. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Denver vs New England injuries news.

The Broncos sit at No. 25 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Patriots are at No. 2 on that chart.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Denver's No. 22-ranked offense, averaging 18.75 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 17 this week at 22.38 PPG. The Broncos aerial game is averaging 214.88 yards per game, less than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 295.5 YPG per game.

In comparing defenses, the Patriots own the league's No. 4-rated front 7 in terms of stopping the run, allowing 81.67 yards per game when on the road. Denver, on the other hand, rates No. 11 this week in generating rushing yards at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Tom Brady led his team to victory last time out, throwing for 333 yards as the Patriots downed the Chargers 21-13 at Gillette Stadium.

Denver didn't make much of a game of it last time out, losing to the Eagles as Philadelphia blasted them 51-23 in Week 9 action.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Denver
  • New England is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games when playing Denver
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 9 games when playing Denver
  • New England is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Denver
  • Denver is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing New England
  • Denver is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing New England
  • The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 9 games when playing New England
  • Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against New England

Next Betting Matchups

New England at Oakland, Sunday, November 19
Denver home to Cincinnati, Sunday, November 19