After suffering a humbling 24-point loss to the Titans, the New England Patriots return from their bye in the Big Apple when they face the New York Jets in Week 12. The Patriots are 2-3 SU and ATS in five road games this season and are 6-4 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs the Jets. New York, on the other hand, is riding a four-game losing streak and has lost seven of its last nine overall.
The Patriots opened as 9.5-point favorites with a total of 46.
- The Patriots are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games after a loss.
- The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games as an underdog.
- The UNDER has hit in the last 4 games in this matchup (avg. combined score: 39.0).
Patriots Have Rewarded Bettors When Coming Off a Loss
The loss to the Titans may have thrown bettors off New England’s scent but when coming off a loss, the Pats have been profitable. The Patriots are 9-1 SU and ATS in their last 10 games when suffering defeat in the previous game, with an average win margin of 11.5 points per game.
The Patriots offense was rolling going into the Titans game, averaging 35.5 points per game during a six-game win streak, but was limited to only 10 points vs Tennessee. The Titans held the Patriots to only 40 yards rushing on 19 carries while outscoring them 17-3 in the first quarter and didn’t look back. Obviously New England’s performance on the road has been a troubling sign for a team aiming to go to its fourth Super Bowl in the last five years.
There are also some conflicting trends for the Patriots in this spot that make this game tough to cap:
- The Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Jets.
- The Pats are 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games when favored by 9.5 or more.
- The Pats are 8-2 SU and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games when favored by 9.5 or more.
- The Pats are 4-5-1 ATS in their last 10 games off a bye.
- The Pats are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games off a bye.
Gun to my head, I’d still back the Patriots to cover the spread but I don’t feel great about it given the history between these divisional rivals.
Jets As Home Dogs Continue To Surprise
At 3-7 SU in 10 games this season, not much has changed for the Jets in 2018 after finishing last season at 5-11 SU. The J-E-T-S were supposed to be lifted by rookie quarterback Sam Darnold but he has been struggling, to say the least, with 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in nine starts, so it shouldn’t be a surprise to see New York ranked 29th in passing yards per game (192.1) and 27th in passing touchdowns.
The Jets were also on a bye this past Sunday and probably needed to take the rest of the season off after allowing the Bills to drop 41 points on them. New York has failed to score more than 20 points in four straight games while going 0-4 ATS in that span.
That’s why it surprises me that this team can be 8-3 ATS in its last 11 home games as underdogs because on paper, the Jets are a dumpster fire. Their head coach is likely on his way out and they’re projected to pick in the top five of next year’s NFL draft. If you think it’s too many points for the Patriots, I don’t blame you. But I can’t endorse any wager that backs the Jets in this one.
Is Another UNDER in Store?
The total opened at 46 and trends are pointing to another UNDER in this AFC East rivalry. The UNDER has hit in the last four games in this matchup with an average combined score of 39 points per game. The UNDER has also hit in six of the Patriots’ last eight games on the road with an average combined score of 44.3.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER. This wager is mainly because of how poor the Jets offense is and I can’t see them topping 20 points based on their quarterback play. I expect the Patriots to come out with a vengeance and stomp a team that looks like it has quit on its coach.
