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Patriots Face Short-handed Steelers and a Big Spread on the Road

This game suddenly got less sexy with confirmation that Ben Roethlisberger would sit out due to a torn meniscus. The injury pushed the original opening spread of -2 in favor of the visiting Patriots way up to -7.5. The Steelers are usually a money bet to bounce back, especially after an upset loss, but with Landry Jones at the helm, a rebound win doesn’t seem likely.

Shark Bites
  • The Patriots are 9-3 SU in their last 12 games against the Steelers.
  • The Patriots are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games in October.
  • The Steelers are 7-1 SU in their last eight games after losing as a favorite.

Any betting trends favoring Pittsburgh can be thrown out the window with Big Ben on the mend, so with a growing spread, it’s best to focus on the Pats here. As a road favorite of a touchdown or more, the results aren’t pretty, as they’re just 2-7 ATS in their last nine games in that spot. On the road in general, they haven’t been a good bet to cover as they’ve gone 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite. Consecutive covers on the road are also rare for New England, as they’re 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games on the road after covering in their most recent road game.

Even though the Patriots went 3-1 without him during his suspension, Tom Brady has made a big difference in his two starts. New England is averaging 34 points in those games, compared to 20.25 without him. Brady has thrown for an average of 391 yards with three TD passes in each of his games this season. Brady has a 6-2 career record vs the Steelers with an amazing 22 TDs and just three picks.

Opening Odds & Computer Pick

The Pittsburgh Steelers were listed as 2-point underdogs at Bovada and other online Sportsbooks, with the total listed at one point at 46.

Handicapping models based on recent betting stats and prediction formulas pick a 28-18 win for the Patriots. View the computer score prediction and who will win the pick on the moneyline for all upcoming NFL matchups here.

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers Matchup

Team Betting Records & Power Rankings

The Pittsburgh Steelers are 4-2 so far on the season, and 4-2 ATS vs the point spread. The New England Patriots, meanwhile, are 5-1 and 5-1 ATS. Those over under betting have seen Pittsburgh go 2-4 and the New England Patriots go 2-3-1 on the totals. Stay Informed: follow us on Twitter for odds specials, betting line moves and Pittsburgh vs New England injuries news.

According to the Power Rankings here at Odds Shark it's the No. 3-rated Pittsburgh Steelers and the No. 5-rated New England Patriots in this matchup.

Statistical Matchup

The game also pits Pittsburgh's No. 9-ranked offense, averaging 25.67 PPG, against a Patriots defense that ranks No. 2 this week at 15.17 PPG. The Steelers aerial game is averaging 264.67 yards per game, more than the Patriots secondary allows through the air, 255.33 YPG per game.

Defensively, the New England Patriots feature the league's No. 3-rated road run defense, allowing 59.5 yards per game. The Pittsburgh Steelers, meanwhile, ranks No. 14 in rushing offense at home.

Recent Outings Betting Recap

Last time out, Tom Brady threw for 3 scores and 376 yards in leading his team past Cincinnati at Gillette Stadium.

The Steelers suffered a Week 6 loss against Miami in their last game, falling 30-15 at Hard Rock Stadium.

Betting Trends
  • New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
  • New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
  • New England is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
  • New England is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games on the road
  • Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
  • Pittsburgh is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games
  • The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
  • Pittsburgh is 5-0-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Next Betting Matchups

New England at Buffalo, Sunday, October 30th
Pittsburgh at Baltimore, Sunday, November 6th

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