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New England Patriots Quarterback Odds: Who Starts Week 1?

New England Patriots quarterback odds come down to rookie Mac Jones, pictured at the 2021 NFL Draft, and veteran Cam Newton.

The New England Patriots finished 7-9, missed the playoffs for the first time since 2008, failed to win the division for the first time since that same year and finished with a losing record for the first time since 2000. And that has sportsbooks speculating about a change at quarterback.

All that previous success was not completely because of former Patriots quarterback Tom Brady, but the future Hall of Famer’s departure from the roster following the 2019 season certainly played a major role in the outcome of the team’s 2020 campaign.

What followed was a third-place finish in the AFC East and subsequently a high draft pick – the highest the Pats have had in recent memory.

The Patriots selected Alabama quarterback Mac Jones 15th overall with that pick, and now the question becomes: Will Mac Jones be the starting quarterback when the 2021 NFL season kicks off?

New England Patriots quarterback odds are now live at online sportsbook Bovada.

Looking for more information on NFL prop betting? Check out our How to Bet NFL Props page.

New England Patriots quarterback odds

New England Patriots quarterback odds: Will Mac Jones start Week 1?
OptionOdds
Yes+300
No-500

Odds as of May 27 at Bovada

Mac Jones

Jones, the fifth quarterback taken in the 2021 NFL Draft, had his share of detractors heading into the draft process. Many believe he was propped up by an otherworldly receiving corps and roster at Alabama while others were concerned that he could not beat out Tua Tagovailoa in 2019 for a starting quarterback job. Tua’s lackluster rookie-year performance in Miami called into question Jones’ true ability.

Nonetheless, Jones had an incredible 2020 campaign, throwing 40 touchdowns and just four interceptions with a 77.4 percent completion rate and a mind-boggling 203.1 efficiency rating.

However, if recent history is any indication, there is a good chance Jones sits to start the year. Not only do coaches usually default to a veteran as a starter over a rookie at any position, but 12 of the 18 quarterbacks selected in the first round in the previous five drafts sat in Week 1 as rookies.

That list includes the likes of No. 1 picks Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield, not to mention Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Justin Herbert. The market has Mac Jones’ odds to start Week 1 pretty long at +300.

Cam Newton

New England Patriots quarterback odds really come down to Jones or Newton. The latter was signed to a one-year deal in July 2020 after nearly three months on the market as a free agent and was named the starter right before the season.

The former MVP started 15 of 16 games and had the worst statistical season of his career. The Patriots clearly designed the offense around Newton’s rushing ability and went out of their way to limit his pass attempts. The result was just eight passing touchdowns and 10 interceptions in 15 games with a 66 percent completion rate (surprisingly the highest of his career), a 47 QBR and the lowest yardage totals of his career.

To be fair to Newton, he missed the team’s Week 4 game against the Kansas City Chiefs after testing positive for COVID-19 and admitted later that he never really felt 100 percent for the rest of the year. The Patriots also had one of the worst groups of offensive weapons in the league in 2020, especially after losing receiver Julian Edelman to injury.

The team spent a ton of money in the offseason to address the issue, bringing in receivers Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor as well as tight ends Jonnu Smith and Hunter Henry on pricey deals. Newton also has an entire offseason to acclimate to his new weapons after joining the team so late in the summer last year.

Brian Hoyer and Jarrett Stidham

Barring injury, New England Patriots quarterback odds won’t give much of a chance to these two players, but both could be one injury away from being a Week 1 starter.

The Patriots this week re-signed veteran journeyman Brian Hoyer to a one-year deal and we like his chances of sticking as the No. 3 QB on the depth chart. Hoyer made the one non-Newton start last season and probably has the inside track for the “inactive on game day” guy.

Stidham, a fourth-round pick of the Pats in 2019, has appeared in eight games in his career, attempting fewer than 50 passes. He appears to be on the outside looking in with Hoyer re-signing.

Best Bet

When it comes to New England Patriots quarterback odds, the best bet has to be ”No” on Bovada’s ”Will Mac Jones start Week 1?” prop. We believe the Week 1 starter will be Cam Newton, and betting ”No” at -500 gives us implied odds of 83.3 percent.

Not only is history not on the side of Jones making the first start of the year, but the team has a competent alternative in Newton. In recent instances where a first-round quarterback started in Week 1 of his rookie season, it was almost always because the team had no other option, or deliberately added nothing to the roster in terms of viable competition. Think Kyler Murray or Joe Burrow.

That is not the case here. The Pats and coach Bill Belichick are clearly comfortable with Newton and have no reason to rush Jones. They also went out of their way to add another veteran in Hoyer.