The 7-5-1 Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves in a downward spiral, dropping their last three games, and now welcome the 9-4 New England Patriots to Heinz Field. Pittsburgh has been on the losing end in each of the last five contests with New England, including their most recent battle in Week 15 last year when the Pats earned a 27-24 road win, but it is the Steelers who are a slight 1-point favorite Sunday with the total Sportsbook at 49 points.
Shark Bites
Pittsburgh averages the second-most passing yards per game (319.1).
The total has gone OVER in 11 of Pittsburgh’s last 13 games at home (avg. combined score: 60.77).
New England is 5-0 SU in its last five games vs Pittsburgh (avg. winning margin: 12.8).
A common theme over the last four playoffs has been the appearance of Pittsburgh, but a three-game losing slide has its postseason hopes hanging by a thread, as a Week 1 tie provides the slightest edge over Indianapolis, Miami, Tennessee and Baltimore, all at 7-6. The Steelers are coming off a trio of losses against the AFC West, two on the road and one at home, and don’t have a favorable schedule with three weeks remaining.
Perhaps even worse than dropping all three of those games was the loss of lead running back James Conner to an ankle injury in the latter stages of the Los Angeles game and he is doubtful to suit up vs New England. Jaylen Samuels took over the running duties this past week vs Oakland and was only able to gain 28 yards on 11 carries, while also securing seven catches for 64 receiving yards in the losing effort.
The Steelers’ main attack is through the air, though, with its two-headed receiving monster of Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster as the two have combined for over 2,200 yards and 18 touchdowns. But veteran Ben Roethlisberger, the man tossing the ball to Smith-Schuster and Brown, missed a portion of the game vs Oakland as he was dealing with a rib injury.
The 36-year-old did return to the game late in the fourth to lead a touchdown drive, but the Raiders stormed back to earn the victory. Defensively, Pittsburgh is surrendering 26.2 points per game at Heinz Field, which is the eighth-most home points allowed in the league, while also giving up 2.5 passing touchdowns at home, which is tied for the most in the NFL.
Patriots playing final road game of the season
You have to go back to 2013 to find a season in which New England dropped four road games and that is exactly what it has done thus far with all four of the Patriots’ defeats coming away from home. They haven’t dropped five away games in a year since 2009 when they were beaten six times.
Most recently on the road in Week 14, they were on the losing end of history as Miami pulled off a game-winning 69-yard touchdown with no time remaining in the fourth quarter with a double lateral, the longest play from scrimmage to claim victory on the final play since the 1970 merger. Tom Brady had his best game of the year in the loss to Miami, tossing a season-high 358 yards and matching a season-high three touchdowns.
The Pats look like a completely different team when they play at Gillette Stadium. On the road, they average nearly 100 fewer yards, score 10 fewer points and allow six more points against.
New England did put in an impressive performance at Soldier Field in Week 7, though, when it was able to put up 38 points on Chicago, which is 16 more points than any other team has been able to score at Soldier Field. Overall, the run game has been a bit of a disaster. A Patriots running back has topped 100 rushing yards just three times this season and on the road the team averages just 98.1 yards per game, the 10th-fewest in the NFL.
Should you be on the OVER for this contest?
This is a battle between two teams ranking in the top six for points per game and the total has opened at 49 points. The total has gone OVER 49 points in five of Pittsburgh’s six home games this season with an average combined score of 60.67. Meanwhile, the total has either gone OVER or pushed 49 points in four of the last five meetings between the Patriots and Steelers with an average combined score of 56.4.
Lastly, New England allows 279.9 passing yards per road game which is the fifth-most in the NFL, while Pittsburgh averages the ninth-most passing yards per game in the league at 300.0, but it surrenders the eighth-most points per game at Heinz Field (26.2). I think you should be on the OVER.
My take on New England vs Pittsburgh
I like the OVER 49 points for this matchup. Pittsburgh scores the fourth-most points per game this season at 28.2 and New England scores the sixth-most at 28. Assuming Big Ben is healthy for this game, he should be able to shred the Pats secondary, which is surrendering the fifth-most road passing yards per game at 279.9 and has given up the eighth-most passing touchdowns this season.
Meanwhile, points have been plentiful at Heinz Field with an average combined score of 60.67 through the six games played there this season. I expect Big Ben and Brady to sling the ball early and often in this contest in a “last team that has the ball wins” high-scoring shootout.
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