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Struggling Saints, Lions Set For Potential Shootout

Saints vs Lions Betting Odds September 29, 2020

Two high-scoring teams with struggling defenses take the field in Week 4 for the chance to get back to .500 on the season. The Lions are coming off an upset win over the Cardinals while the Saints lost a second straight game in which they allowed more than 30 points.

New Orleans Saints vs Detroit Lions
  • Date/Time: October 4, 1 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Ford Field
  • TV Coverage: Fox
  • Opening Odds: Saints -6 | O/U 50.5 (Line History)
  • Saints vs Lions Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

This game opened with the Saints (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) as favorites at -6. That number has slipped to -4 as money has come in on the Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS). The total opened at 50.5 but has moved up to either 54.5 or 55 depending on the sportsbook.

New Orleans News & Notes

Many were questioning Drew Brees’ effectiveness heading into Week 3, but those questions were mostly answered with an efficient 288-yard, three-touchdown performance. However, Brees is dead last (33rd) in the league in average depth of target (4.6 yards) and is the only QB to average fewer than six yards per target. This is a sign that the Saints and/or Brees himself do not believe he can throw downfield effectively anymore.

But this week, Brees’ arm strength may not matter so much against a Lions defense that has given up an average of 172.3 rushing yards per game, third-most in the NFL. Watch for the Saints to try to control the game on the ground with running backs Alvin Kamara and Latavius Murray.

Detroit News & Notes

While the Detroit defense has been a sieve against the run, the Saints defense has allowed the seventh-fewest yards per game on the ground. This means the Lions will likely have to pass the ball a ton to outscore the potent Saints attack.

The return of star receiver Kenny Golladay provided a boost for Matthew Stafford in Week 3 as he led the team with a 6-57-1 line. Look for Golladay to again be the primary target in a game in which the Lions will likely be trailing. 

Detroit’s Week 3 win was a long time coming, snapping a streak of 11 straight losses. The Lions hadn’t celebrated a victory since October 27, 2019, when they bested the New York Giants 31-26 at Ford Field.

Betting Pick: OVER 54.5

This game has OVER written all over it. Two struggling defenses, two offenses filled with playmakers. The Lions have yet to hold an opponent below 23 points and the Saints have yet to score fewer than 24.

Shark Bites
  • The Saints are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
  • The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 games.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 games in this matchup.