Another week, another high-scoring performance from the New Orleans Saints. Led by the ageless Drew Brees, New Orleans squares off against Odell Beckham, Saquon Barkley and the New York Giants at MetLife Stadium. New Orleans enters the game favored by 3.5 points, with the total set at 50.
- The OVER has hit in 4 of the last 5 matchups between the Saints and Giants (avg. combined score: 71.4).
- The total has gone OVER in five of the Saints’ last 6 games (avg combined score: 62.0).
- The Saints are 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 road games.
WHY I LOVE THE OVER ON SUNDAY
Drew Brees. Alvin Kamara. Michael Thomas. Odell Beckham Jr. Saquon Barkley. This game is full of elite offensive playmakers who have been playing at the top of their game.
New Orleans has topped the 40-point mark in two of its three contests, and not surprisingly has been led by a prolific aerial attack. Drew Brees looks as good as ever, Michael Thomas has broken out as one of the NFL’s top receivers, leading the league with 38 catches and 398 yards, and Alvin Kamara is third in receptions and sixth in receiving yards … as a running back. The Saints are putting up points in bunches, but they haven’t exactly been stopping anyone on defense…
... which bodes well for the Giants. Odell Beckham Jr. is coming off his second 100-yard receiving game of the year, and goes against a Saints defense that has yielded the second-most passing yards in the NFL.
New Orleans also has been giving up yards on the ground, surrendering 112 to Tampa Bay in Week 1 and 93 to the Browns in Week 2. The Saints only allowed 48 rushing yards in Week 3, but that was because Matt Ryan was too busy shredding them through the air for five passing touchdowns. The Giants have second overall pick Saquon Barkley, who has topped 100 yards from scrimmage in each of his three games and is a threat to turn any touch into a highlight-reel touchdown.
The Saints are going to score points, but the Giants have the playmakers and the firepower to stay with them. We may not see another 80-point game, but I expect the total of 50 goes OVER.
DREW BREES BETTER THAN EVER?
Drew Brees is a surefire Hall of Famer. The 11-time Pro Bowler is currently third all-time in passing yards (and will pass Brett Favre and Peyton Manning for first within the next two games), third in passing touchdowns and he just claimed the mantle of all-time leader for pass completions. But he is 39, so there’s always questions of when he will slow down.
It’s not this year, that’s for sure. Brees is actually off to one of his best starts ever, leading the NFL with 1,078 yards — a current pace for 5,749 on the season — while adding in eight passing touchdowns. Even more impressive, however, is how Brees’ trademark efficiency has improved.
Through three games, Brees’ completion rate is a jaw-dropping 80.6 percent, well above his career 67.1 percent average and better than his career season high, which was 72 percent set last season. His favorite target, the aforementioned Thomas, is especially effective, with 38 catches on 40 targets (95 percent catch rate).
Even though he’s approaching the ripe old age of 40, Brees looks as dangerous as ever, with no signs of slowing down.
SAINTS NEED TO UP THE PRESSURE
Eli Manning isn’t the most mobile QB, so if you can apply constant pressure to him, he’ll have a hard time connecting with all the weapons at his disposal. Eli has been sacked 12 times already, fourth-most in the NFL, so the Saints have a way of slowing down the Giants offense.
Last year the Saints were tied for seventh in the NFL with 42 sacks, but this year they have the fourth-fewest sacks in the league.
All-Pro defensive end Cameron Jordan is tied for the NFL lead with four sacks. New Orleans only has six on the year, so asking one player to shoulder the load is a lot. He’s going to need some help from the rest of the team if they want to help out that secondary that has been getting burned all year.
