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Saints huge chalk vs Colts

In the second Super Bowl rematch, the Saints host the Colts in a matchup of Super Bowl XLIV teams, but clearly this is not a championship-calibre team in Indy in 2011.

New Orleans opened as 14-point chalk against the winless Colts and this number could climb much higher during the week. Of note, the past four meetings have been high-scoring affairs (at least 48 PPG in each).

Indy has been a reliable OVER bet on the road in October (8-1 in the past nine) but Curtis Painter is not Peyton Manning. But the Saints give up yardage which makes the OVER worth investigating each week (opened at 48).

They will also be hungry to rebound from an upset loss against Tampa Bay in Week 6.

View Indianapolis vs New Orleans Odds and Stats.

Betting Line:
On the opening line for this matchup the Saints sit as 14-point favorites . The total, meanwhile, has been pegged by the oddsmakers at 48. Intertops had the best Saints line at -13.5 as of Friday while the best Colts line was +15.5, a whopping 2-point difference over at 5Dimes.

Power Rankings / Prediction:
The Saints sit at No. 7 in the current NFL Power Rankings here at OddsShark, while the Colts are at No. 32 on that chart. Math models have concluded that the Saints will win this game 29-15.

How They Match Up:
Offensively, the game matches up New Orleans's No. 6-ranked offense (29.5 PPG) against a Colts defense that ranks No. 28 at 27.2 PPG. The Saints passing attack has averaged 344.3 yards per game, more than the Colts give up through the air (255.8 YPG on average).

Defensively, the Colts feature the league's No. 28-rated road run defense, allowing 151 yards per game. New Orleans, meanwhile, ranks No. 21 in rushing offense at home.

In their last action, Indianapolis was a 27-17 loser on the road against the Bengals. They failed to cover the 4.5–point spread as underdogs, while the combined score (44) was profitable news for OVER bettors. In their last game, the Colts were Week 6 losers coming out on the wrong end of 27-17 score against Cincinnati.

New Orleans lost its last outing, a 26-20 result against the Buccaneers on October 16. The Saints failed to cover in that game as a 6.5-point favorite, while the 46 combined points took the game UNDER the total. Drew Brees's 383-yard performance through the air wasn't enough last time out, as Tampa Bay earned a 26-20 win over New Orleans on Sunday at Raymond James Stadium.

Indianapolis Colts Trends:
When playing in October are 5-5
When playing on turf are 2-8
After being outgained are 2-8
When playing outside the division are 1-9

New Orleans Saints Trends:
When playing in October are 7-3
When playing on turf are 7-3
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3

A few Colts at Saints trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Indianapolis's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing New Orleans
Indianapolis is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games at home

Next up:
Indianapolis at Tennessee, Sunday, October 30
New Orleans at St. Louis, Sunday, October 30