New York Giants vs Carolina Panthers

While Carolina enjoyed its early-season bye week, the Giants failed to exploit what was statistically one of the NFL’s worst pass defenses, losing to the Saints 33-18 at home and falling to 1-3 straight up and against the spread. To their credit, despite missing Eli Apple for a second straight game, New York’s ninth-ranked pass defense limited Drew Brees to 217 yards, while Janoris Jenkins locked up Michael Thomas. New York travels to Carolina in Week 5 where the Panthers opened as 7-point favorites before the line slid slightly to -6.5 with the Giants moneyline at +220 and O/U total 44.5 points.

Giants vs Panthers Game Center

WHEN WE LAST SAW THE PANTHERS

Carolina headed into its Week 4 bye with a 31-21 win over Cincinnati to improve to 2-1 straight up and against the spread with the OVER hitting against the Bengals and Falcons in back-to-back weeks.

With no Greg Olsen, the Panthers are leaning heavily on Christian McCaffrey. He rushed 28 times for 184 yards (6.6 yards per rush) against the Bengals.

Carolina’s rush defense has allowed 4.9 yards per attempt through three games, but must be on alert to keep rookie Saquon Barkley contained. He’s already busted three runs of 24-plus yards this season.

WHAT WE LEARNED: GIANT REGRESSION

If you take anything away from Week 4, it should be: “The Texans pass defense is terrible and possibly worst in the league.” A week after Eli Manning torched Houston for 297 yards and two touchdowns, he gets slowed by New Orleans’ 30th-ranked pass defense? Huh?

On defense, Jenkins held Mike Thomas to four receptions after he hauled in 38 passes through the first three weeks. If any consistent bright spot exists on the Giants, it’s their pass defense. The G-Men’s suspect front seven allowed Alvin Kamara to average 7.1 yards per carry for 134 yards with three touchdowns. Through four games, the Giants rank 29th against the rush as they’ve allowed 126 yards per game. McCaffrey gonna eat!

PANTHERS AFTER SOME R&R

Carolina is 3-0 straight up and against the spread in its last three games following a bye. The Panthers are 6-4 straight up, 5-5 against the spread and 3-7 O/U in their last 10 home games following a bye.

NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: CAM 200-YARD DASH

Known more for his large stature and ability to move the chains with his legs, Cam Newton will never go down as a great passing quarterback. He’s completed less than 59 percent of his passes for his career and ranked outside the top 20 quarterbacks in pass yards per game in each of the past three years. He’s averaging just 215 pass yards per game, but those backing Carolina this weekend just need him to eclipse the 200-yard threshold.

In games when Cam passes for 200 or more yards, the Panthers are 41-35-1 straight up, but 43-30-4 against the spread. When he failed to reach 200 passing yards, Carolina is 26-16 SU and 23-18-1 ATS.

CHARLOTTE, NC FORECAST

Partly cloudy with temperatures in the mid-80s, humidity above 70 percent and possibility of a stray thunderstorm. Chance of rain is 30 percent.

Giants kicker Aldrick Rosas is a perfect 8-for-8 on field-goal attempts and 4-for-4 on extra points this season.

October is Graham Gano’s most accurate month. The nine-year veteran has connected on 87 percent of his field goals during the second month of the season.

MY PICK

The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven Giants-Panthers matchups with an average total of 50.7. This week’s O/U of 44.5 illustrates how each offense has regressed over the years. The Giants have failed to score more than 18 points in three of their four games. The key for Carolina to cover the 6.5 is to contain Saquon Barkley. If you remove his four longest runs of the season, the rookie out of Penn State is averaging just 2.5 yards on 53 carries. Panthers win and cover.