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Trends Point Heavily Toward UNDER in Giants-Cowboys SNF Matchup

Both coming off disappointing losses in Week 1 for completely different reasons, the Giants and Cowboys will renew their rivalry in Dallas for Week 2’s Sunday nighter. Dallas opened as a -3.5 favorite (has since moved to -3) and will be looking to continue a run that’s seen the Cowboys go 7-3 SU in their last 10 vs the Giants along with a 4-1 SU record in their last five hosting New York. That could be enough to sway bettors in the direction of Dallas but the safest bet might be on UNDER the total of 42.5.

Shark Bites
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Giants’ last four games against the Cowboys (avg. combined score: 29.5).
  • The Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games as a home favorite.
  • In two games vs the Giants last season, Dak Prescott threw for 600 yards and 4 TDs.

Giants vs Cowboys Game Center

My best bet for Giants vs Cowboys: UNDER 42.5

After combining to score just 23 points in Week 1, it’s clear that both offenses have a lot of work to do on Sunday night, but improving upon uninspiring performances won’t be easy. Despite losing, each defense played respectable football as Dallas allowed just 16 points and 293 yards (fifth fewest in the league) while New York allowed just 13 points (not including the seven from the Myles Jack pick-six).

Low scoring has been a trademark of this rivalry recently, as the teams have gone UNDER in four consecutive games. Those four games had an average combined score of just 29.5 points, including last season’s opener in Dallas, which the Cowboys won 19-3.

Generating offense is an issue that Dallas might be carrying over from last season. In their final eight games in 2017, they scored fewer than 10 points on four occasions and averaged just 16 points per game in those contests, so Week 1’s eight-point performance could be a sign of things to come in 2018. It’s also worth mentioning Dak Prescott’s regression since his rookie season as he’s now thrown for fewer than 200 yards in seven of his last nine games.

Finally, we can’t mention the inept Dallas offense without highlighting the demise of their once-great offensive line. Clearly, there’s some injuries at play, which won’t be resolved in time for this game, but the current unit allowed six sacks in Week 1. Combine that with the factors I mentioned above and I think we have more than enough evidence to support an UNDER play.

A Difficult Decision for Spread Bettors

With this game featuring a 3-point spread, I personally think it’s one of the tougher calls of the week, but I think New York has much greater big-play potential, so I lean their way. Saquon Barkley had a fantastic debut in Week 1, earning 128 total yards and a touchdown. Odell Beckham, meanwhile, showed no sign of the ankle injury that knocked him out for the season in 2017, catching 11 of 15 targets for 111 yards. In what I expect to be a low-scoring affair, a big play by either could be all it takes for the G-Men to cover the spread.

Betting on Dallas as a home favorite has been an unprofitable bet over the past few seasons as the Cowboys are just 8-17 ATS in that spot since November 3, 2013.

Are the Giants better than they were in 2017?

One game is a tiny sample size but the Giants showed a few glimpses in Week 1 that they’ll be much more competitive this season — having a dynamic rookie RB and one of the top receivers in the league in the same huddle will do that. Let’s not forget that they went 11-5 SU in 2016 before they were completely ravaged by injuries and boneheaded coaching decisions by Ben McAdoo that derailed their 2017 campaign. There was still some boneheadedness (that’s a word, right?) vs the Jaguars, but all signs point to a better product in 2018, which is bad news for other NFC East teams in what could be a very tight division. 

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