After beating two teams with a combined W-L record of 5-15 SU, the Giants aim to win three games in a row for the first time since November 2016 when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12. The Giants and Eagles are all but eliminated from postseason contention but that doesn’t mean the bad blood won’t be on display between these NFC East rivals. The last time the Giants beat the Eagles was coincidentally when they won those three games in a row.
The Eagles opened as 6-point favorites with a total of 46.
- Philadelphia is 24th in the NFL in points scored per game (20.5)
- The Giants are 4-1 ATS in five road games this season.
- The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Eagles’ 5 home games this season (avg. combined score: 39 points per game).
Eagles Offense Coming Up Short
With the offensive weaponry the Eagles possess, it’s alarming that they only average 20.5 points per game. Alshon Jeffery, Golden Tate and Nelson Agholor are a trio that would make any defensive coordinator lose sleep but it’s actually TE Zach Ertz leading the team in receiving this season with 77 catches, 804 yards and five touchdowns.
Without having the reliability in the wideouts, Philly’s run game has all but crumpled since Jay Ajayi was ruled out for the season with an ACL injury. The Eagles are only averaging 98.2 rush yards per game (ranked 25th) with seven touchdowns on the ground, which is a far cry from last season when they averaged nearly 133 yards per contest (ranked third).
This is why taking the Eagles on the spread is a tricky predicament because on paper, they’re way better than the Giants, but they have the look of a team that is lost for answers. They’re 1-4 ATS in five home games this season and 3-7 ATS in 10 games for the year, which is shocking for a reigning Super Bowl Sportsbook.
Giants Have Been Frisky in Road Games
I was very high on the Giants coming into the season as I predicted they would make the playoffs and Saquon Barkley would lead the NFL in touchdowns. Boy, was I dead wrong. The Giants are again likely to miss the playoffs and Barkley has been so misused that he may be lucky to crack 10 total touchdowns by the end of the year (he has seven). But over the last two games, the G-Men’s offense has come back to life. New York scored 65 points over two games and the 38 points it scored against the Niners was a season high.
Where the Giants have surprised bettors is how close they’re keeping games on the road. They have yet to lose an away game by more than seven points and have gone 4-1 ATS in five games away from MetLife Stadium. The three SU losses were by a combined 12 points to Dallas, Carolina and Atlanta. When a road dog of 6 points or more, the Giants have covered the spread in three straight games and in two of the last three games in this matchup. Do I feel great about laying money on the Giants? Hell no, but with the way the Eagles have played lately, I can’t trust them either.
Lincoln Financial Field Producing a Lot of UNDERs
The total opened at 46 and when the Eagles take the field, the UNDER seems to follow. The UNDER has hit in eight of Philly’s last 10 games at home, with an average combined score of 33.4 points per game, and in four of their five home games this season. Both of these offenses average just over 20 points per game and while the Giants have been on a nice scoring run, the fact remains that Eli Manning will be staring down the Eagles defense. Both of these teams also rank in the 20s in net yards per play, which means offense isn’t their strong suit.
My Pick Is…
To take the UNDER for the reasons above. Scoring isn’t rampant when playing in Philadelphia and the Eagles offense has taken a nosedive. I expect this game to be close and fall just short of the 46-point total.
