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49ers are the Best Bet in Monday Night Football History

What is the deal with these Monday Night Football games? They’ve been pure trash week in and week out and the Week 10 edition featuring the Giants and 49ers sits firmly on top of the garbage heap – thank the football gods we get Chiefs vs Rams in Mexico next week.

The Niners, astonishingly, opened as 3-point favorites after ripping up the Raiders to earn their second win of the season and the total opened at 44 with the Niners going UNDER in their last three, and the Giants going UNDER in their last two.

There’s plenty of uncertainty heading into this one, with Nick Mullens looking like Joe Montana against Oakland, and it’s not a game I’ve been looking forward to handicapping. Let’s break it down.

Shark bites
  • At 46-16-1 ATS on Monday nights, the 49ers are the best bet in MNF history (since 1970).
  • The Giants are averaging 15.33 points scored over their last three games.
  • The 49ers are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 games as home favorites.

Giants vs 49ers Game Center

Monday Nights are Right for Nine’ing

I won’t base a bet off this but the 49ers have been an unbelievable Monday night bet, going 48-26 SU and 46-16-1 ATS in their 63 MNF games since 1970.

I don’t know what the reason for that is and it’s not a trend I’m comfortable wagering on so let’s move on.

San Fran is Horrible When Tabbed a Home Favorite

When closing as the home favorite – something they’re almost certainly going to do on Monday night unless the Giants somehow trade for Patrick Mahomes – the 49ers have gone 1-14 against the spread dating back to 2013, failing to cover by an average of 7.61 points.

While it’s tough to use that point to handicap this one specifically with how bad the Giants have been, it’s interesting to note and important to consider that during that span, the Niners actually won eight games. The problem being that their average winning margin in those games is just 4.25.

For those reasons – and because of how bad both teams are – I think picking a side in this game is nearly impossible and I will be focusing the rest of my handicapping efforts on the Week 10 MNF total.

Giants Have Been Putting up Miniature Scorelines

While it hasn’t been as bad as the Bills’, the Giants’ offense has been miserable. New York is averaging just 18.8 points scored per game this season and that number has dropped to 15.33 over its last three.

Eli Manning has been benign over that period, posting QBRs of 23.5, 59.4 and 3.2.

Combine those factors with the 49ers defense, which has quietly been pretty good, and you get a low-scoring game (I hope).

San Fran gave up just three points to Oakland last week and 18 the week before to Arizona, and the Giants rank closely with the Raiders and Cardinals in most offensive and scoring categories.

Best Bet for Giants-49ers: UNDER 44

For some reason, the public is absolutely POUNDING the OVER here (73% consensus at the time of writing) and I think that’s a huge mistake. The public has a losing 13-15 record picking totals for prime-time games this season and this seems like an obvious spot to fade the consensus with the public coming off such a good week.

I’m not sold on Nick Mullens after his shocking performance against the Raiders and I think he falls back down to earth on Monday night. Oakland looks like a team that’s given up and while New York isn’t far away from that point, the Giants are still playing a little defense.

If the Giants hold the 49ers under 30 points (which I think they will), this thing is going UNDER all day.

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