Andrew Luck passed for less than 200 yards for the first time since October 21, but the Colts defense stepped their game up, slowing Ezekiel Elliott and the Cowboys offense in a 23-0 shutout win. Indianapolis improved to 8-6 overall and 7-6-1 against the spread.
In soggy conditions at MetLife Stadium, the Titans defense loaded up against Saquon Barkley, held the Rookie of the Year candidate to 31 yards on 14 carries and forced two Eli Manning turnovers in a 17-0 shutout win. After winning four of their past five heading into the matchup, the loss dropped New York to 5-9 overall and 7-6-1 against the spread.
The Colts opened as 9.5-point favorites, but that has dipped slightly to Indy -9. The Giants moneyline opened at +330 and the point total opened and remained at 47 as of Monday afternoon.
The Colts are 2-5 ATS over the past seven when favored by 9 or more points at home and the UNDER has hit in six of those seven instances. The Giants are 6-1 ATS over their past seven when road dogs of 9 or more points. The UNDER has hit in five of those seven matchups.
- The total has gone UNDER in the Colts’ last five games (avg. combined score: 34.6).
- The Colts are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games as home favorites.
- The Giants are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games on the road vs teams with winning records.
WHAT WE LEARNED: WEEK 15
Giants – Saquon Barkley had been averaging 134.5 rush yards per game before the Titans held him to 31. Indianapolis has allowed just 93.3 rush yards per game the past three weeks as they slowed lead backs T.J. Yeldon/Carlos Hyde, Lamar Miller and Ezekiel Elliott.
After the Titans sacked Eli Manning three more times in Week 15, the Giants offensive line has now played a part in 46 sacks allowed this season – fourth-most in the NFL. The Colts pass rush has 11 sacks over the past three weeks.
The Giants are “hopeful” Odell Beckham will return this week after missing the past few with a quad injury.
Colts – Running back Marlon Mack rushed 27 times for a career-high 139 yards with two touchdowns against the Cowboys’ fifth-ranked rush defense. The Giants rank 28th against the rush and just allowed the Titans to rack up 215 rush yards.
After missing most practices in the lead-up to Week 14’s matchup with Houston, T.Y. Hilton still managed 199 receiving yards. He didn’t practice last week either and caught five passes for 85 yards against the Cowboys. If Hilton doesn’t practice, but is active on gameday, believe the veteran receiver is going to produce at near 100 percent.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: SHUTOUT HANGOVER
Indianapolis picked up its first shutout win since 2014. However, the Colts shouldn’t celebrate too long as teams that post a shutout are just 23-18 straight up and 16-24-1 against the spread in their following game since 2011.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: GIANT KILLERS
Derrick Henry’s 33 carries for 170 yards in slick conditions distracted many from the fact that Marcus Mariota finished with just 88 passing yards. It’s the first time the Giants have failed to cover the spread when holding an opposing quarterback under 90 passing yards. They’re 8-1 ATS all-time.
INDIANAPOLIS, INDIANA FORECAST
Dome inside.
Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri was a perfect 3-for-3 on field-goal attempts and 2-for-2 on extra points in Indy’s win over the Cowboys. He’s 21-for-25 on field goals and 37 of 39 on extra points. New York’s Aldrick Rosas is 28-for-29 and 25-for-26 on field goals and extra points, respectively, this season.
MY LEAN
Even with how well the Colts have been playing the past two weeks, if Odell Beckham returns to the Giants’ starting lineup, this is too many points to lay down. Remember, it was just three weeks ago that the Colts were shut out by the Jaguars. A Giants offense featuring Beckham, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and Saquon Barkley on a dome’s fast turf track favors the road team. While I believe the Colts will beat the Giants outright, Eli’s not done using up his nine NFL lives and keeps things close. I’ll take NYG -9 if Beckham plays.
