Three turnovers and an inability to stop Baker Mayfield led to an improbable comeback, Cleveland’s first win since 2016, and dropped the upstart Jets to 1-2. Blake Bortles and the Jaguars offense laid an egg in a 9-6 loss to the visiting Titans in Week 3, but both outcomes didn’t deter oddsmakers from fully backing Jacksonville in this Week 4 matchup. Jacksonville opened as a 9-point home favorite Sunday night, but some Jets action moved the line to -8 by Monday morning. Gang Green’s moneyline opened at +275, but some books have them as high as +320. The O/U total is 38.
- The Jets are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games vs the Jaguars.
- The Jaguars are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games after an ATS loss.
- The total has gone UNDER in four of the Jets’ last five games (avg. combined score: 37.6).
DARNOLD NEEDS TO THANK STAFFORD
If not for Matthew Stafford’s four-interception performance in Week 1 against the Jets, Sam Darnold would be receiving a lot more heat from media pundits. Save for a few passes in that game at Detroit, the first-round draft pick out of USC has looked pretty gosh-darn awful.
Over his past two games against Miami and Cleveland, Darnold is 40 of 72 for 503 yards with one touchdown and four interceptions and possesses a 58.9 passer rating which, if ranked among the league leaders through three weeks, would rank dead last, behind Sam Bradford.
The good news for Darnold is that Jags slot cornerback D.J. Hayden is looking doubtful for Week 4 as he works his way back from a sprained toe, which forced him to miss Week 3’s game against the Titans.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: IS LEO FOURNETTE TRULY THE JAGS’ X FACTOR?
Doug Marrone says his star running back remains day to day with a bad hamstring. After missing the past two games, whether he practices Wednesday or not will give us a better sense of if he’ll suit up and play against the Jets. Just remember, a hamstring tweak is a nagging injury that can flare up on any given play.
T.J. Yeldon carried the bulk of the work the past two weeks in Fournette’s absence. He averaged 6.0 yards per carry and actually led the Jaguars in receiving against the Titans. So, one wonders, how critical has Fournette been to Jaguars backers’ success?
In games where Leo has one or more touches, the Jags are 10-7 straight up and 9-8 against the spread. In five games without him, they’re 4-1 SU and ATS. That one loss was last week to the Titans.
NEXT LEVEL TRENDS: JETS AS HEAVY ROAD DOGS
As many learned the hard way last Sunday, road dogs came back to bite heavy home favorites. With the Jets receiving 9 points from the host Jaguars, recent history still doesn’t suggest a positive outcome for New York backers. The Jets are 1-9 straight up and 5-4-1 against the spread in their last 10 games as a road dog of 9 or more points.
JACKSONVILLE, FL FORECAST
Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of rain, winds gusting to 20 miles per hour, temperatures near 90 degrees and humidity above 70 percent. Soupy and IV fluid bag approved.
Jets kicker Jason Myers returns to the place he called home for three seasons. From 2015 to 2017, Myers connected on 86.6 percent of his field goal tries at Jacksonville’s home stadium.
MY PICK
The race to 20 points is on! New York has allowed 19.3 points per game through the first three weeks, while the Jaguars average 19.0 points per game. The Jets’ recent offensive woes cast a dark shadow on their 25.7 points per game season average as they’ve only managed 14.5 points per game against the Dolphins and Browns defenses. Most would yield that Jacksonville’s defense is better than both those two squads, although Cleveland is quickly closing the gap.
While I don’t see how New York scores 20 points in this matchup, I also don’t envision how the Jaguars, who just let the Titans defense shut them down, win this game by 10 or more. A 10-point cover will have to come on a pick-six and/or special teams play. Those aren’t facets of the game where I like to risk my ATS money.
I’ll take the UNDER.
