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Miami in Rare Role as Heavy Favorite Facing Hapless Jets

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins Betting Preview

The Miami Dolphins are 6-2 SU and 6-1-1 ATS in eight games against the New York Jets since 2016. The Dolphins have often been small favorites or underdogs in this rivalry matchup in recent years, but on Sunday, Miami will be one of the biggest favorites on the board against a Jets team still looking for its first win in 2020.

New York Jets vs Miami Dolphins
  • Date/Time: October 18, 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Stadium: Hard Rock Stadium
  • TV Coverage: CBS
  • Opening Odds: Dolphins -8 | O/U 50 (Line History)
  • Jets vs Dolphins Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis

The odds on this matchup seemed to be set just right by the sportsbooks as Miami has remained an 8-point road favorite over the Jets since opening as one over the weekend. The total, however, has seen significant movement toward the UNDER, moving from its opening line of 50 points down to 47.5 points. The UNDER is 3-1 in the last four games between the Jets and Dolphins.

New York News & Notes

With Houston’s Bill O’Brien and Atlanta’s Dan Quinn both getting their walking papers over the last two weeks, Adam Gase now owns the hottest coaching seat in the NFL. His Jets are 0-5 SU and ATS and have a staggering average margin of defeat of 17.2 points. New York ranks 31st in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 32.2 points per game, and is dead last in scoring offense with only 15 points per game.

To make matters worse, the Jets are riddled with injuries. Le’Veon Bell returned from a hamstring injury in last Sunday’s 30-10 loss to the Arizona Cardinals, but quarterback Sam Darnold and wide receivers Chris Hogan and Breshad Perriman are all listed as questionable for this Sunday’s game. Darnold has regressed in his second year under Gase with only 792 passing yards, three passing touchdowns and four interceptions across four starts in 2020.

Miami News & Notes

Many Dolphins fans were calling for Tua Tagovailoa to take over the starting role after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw two interceptions and no touchdown passes in a 31-23 loss to the Seattle Seahawks that dropped Miami to 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the season.

But Miami seems determined to be patient with its young quarterback and stuck with Fitzpatrick last Sunday against the San Francisco 49ers. The veteran quarterback responded with 350 passing yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions to lead the Dolphins to a 43-17 upset win as 8.5-point underdogs in San Francisco.

Miami’s three losses this season have come against three of the league’s best teams in the Seahawks, the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Blowout wins against the Jacksonville Jaguars and 49ers suggest that the Dolphins may be more competitive than their 2-3 SU record would indicate.

Betting Pick: Miami -8

New York has lost all five of its games by double digits this season and looks completely lost on both sides of the ball. There might be some value on the Jets at some point this season if the front office decides to cut ties with Adam Gase, but until then, they make for a pretty reliable fade.

Shark Bites
  • New York is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games vs AFC East teams.
  • Miami is 3-0-1 ATS in its last 4 home games vs New York.
  • The OVER is 4-1 in New York’s last 5 road games vs Miami.