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NFC Championship Game Player Prop Bet Picks

Philadelphia’s dog days of winter continue. For the second consecutive playoff game, the Eagles are home dogs. Despite the need for a last-second miracle against New Orleans, the Vikings are 3 ½-point NFC championship game favorites.

All prop odds courtesy of Bovada.

VIKINGS AT EAGLES PROP BET RELEVANT NOTES:

Pass Defense Regular Season

  • MIN – 192.4 PYAPG (2nd)
  • PHI – 227.3 PYAPG (17th)

Last Sunday, Drew Brees caught fire in the second half to finish 25-for-40 for 294 yards with three touchdowns and two interceptions against the Vikes. It was the first time since WEEK 12 that Minnesota’s secondary allowed more than 178 (!) passing yards.

Matt Ryan finished 22-36 for 210 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles. If you set aside Eli Manning’s 434 pass yards in Week 12 as an anomaly, the Eagles secondary held opposing QBs to 172.8 PYPG the last seven weeks of the regular season.

Rush Defense Regular Season

  • MIN – 83.6 RYAPG (2nd)
  • PHI – 79.2 RYAPG (1st)

As expected, Minnesota smothered the Saints rush attack. Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram combined for 68 yards on 21 carries (3.2 YPR).

We learned after the Falcons loss to Philly that Devonta Freeman injured his PCL and MCL in the regular-season finale and he played hurt during Atlanta’s two postseason games. So, his seven yards on 10 carries does come with an asterisk, while Tevin Coleman’s 10 carries for 79 yards does bode well for Vikings RBs. In fact, the Eagles have allowed 97.2 yards to opposing running back units the last five games.

Latavius Murray Rush Yards O/U 60 ½
The Bet: OVER (-110)

Although he only managed 50 yards on 19 rush attempts against the Saints, there is little doubt that Murray is Minnesota’s lead back. He’s carried the ball 19 or more times in four straight games. Jerick McKinnon has averaged nine rush attempts during that stretch. Philly’s stout rush defense has shown signs of regression for a month now and, unlike Devonta Freeman, the Vikings’ lead back is healthy.

Note: Considering how well Coleman played last week, I do like McKinnon’s ceiling this week, too.

Nelson Agholor Receptions O/U 3 ½
The Bet: UNDER (-115)

Pro Football Focus has Agholor lining up opposite Minnesota’s Terence Newman. The veteran defensive back has played so well this season, he shared on Twitter that he’s been tested for HGH three times this month. As for Agholor’s past three games with Foles behind center (Week 17, Foles was pulled early):

  • vs ATL – 3 receptions, 3 targets, 24 yards
  • vs OAK – 4 receptions, 7 targets, 35 yards
  • vs NYG – 7 receptions, 9 targets, 59 yards

Against Minnesota’s second-ranked pass defense, this doesn’t appear to be a matchup where Agholor breaks out for 4+ receptions.

How Many Times Will Carson Wentz Be Mentioned During the Game O/U 3 ½
Note:
From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count toward wager, must say “Wentz.” Book manager’s decision is final.

The Bet: OVER (-200)

  1. Reminder how he got hurt/his rehab timetable
  2. How he’s helped Foles/Eagles prepare
  3. Reax when Foles makes a mistake
  4. Reax when Foles makes a second mistake/end-of-game reax

What also helps this OVER is Troy Aikman, a former quarterback, as the color commentator. Also, consider that injury sidelined both teams’ starting quarterbacks. The Bradford-to-Keenum and Wentz-to-Foles swaps present another opportunity for the Eagles quarterback’s name to be mentioned.

Reason to Fade: Producers/Buck/Aikman know about this prop and troll bettors.

Will the Stefon Diggs game-winning TD be shown on TV during the broadcast of the Vikings/Eagles game?
Note: From kickoff to final whistle, halftime does not count toward wager.

The Bet: YES (-550)

Sharing stories from the past (did you know Jeff Fisher coached both Foles and Keenum?), present (it’s Joe Player’s birthday today) or future (Joe Player said he’ll encourage his son to play football) are just as important as breaking down the X’s and O’s and play-by-play during a Fox Sports broadcast.

Think about how much time Buck and Aikman need to fill between each play. Now, consider that Diggs’ last-second touchdown was easily a top-five play in NFL history. The Vikings aren’t playing Sunday without the touchdown. So, you can’t ignore it. They’re going to show it after a Diggs catch or as a bumper coming out of break. Look out for a fan reaction social media clip montage. There’s a reason the vig is so high, but Fox Sports game producers know they have an all-time highlight to work with and they’re going to smash the play button.

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