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NFC Championship Pick & Betting Analysis

Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles +3, 39

When this number was at 38.5, it was the lowest total we’ve seen in a conference championship game since 2011. That number was 38 when the Steelers faced the Jets. It’s not the lowest we’ve ever seen, though, in our database – that was 34 in both 2002 and 1984.

It’s also the lowest total we’ve seen in an Eagles game since Oct. 26, 2009, at Washington when Philadelphia won 27-17. That’s a combination of Nick Foles and an Eagles defense that ranks first in the NFL against the rush this season and fourth in points against. 

Also playing into account here is the fact the Eagles have played UNDER the total in six of their last eight games and – oh yeah – Minnesota’s defense ranks first in yards per play, first in scoring, second in rushing and third in passing yards against. It’s very good. 

I’m not overthinking this one – the Vikings defense is the best in the NFL and it’s going up against a Nick Foles-led offense. That’s 277.5 yards per game over his four starts, which would rank worst in the NFL if it were over the whole season. 

As Yahoo’s Frank Schwab points out in the vid above, those numbers have to be taken with a grain of salt. But I still don’t think this offense is good enough to beat the Vikings defense. I like Minnesota in a low-scoring one on Sunday. 

Pick: Vikings -3