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Best Bets For Every NFL Team in 2019

NFL Best Bets For Each Team

As we creep closer to the NFL’s opening kickoff, bettors are getting their funds ready to invest in some season-long bets.

Here at Odds Shark, our writers Stephen Campbell, Scott Hastings, Kris Abbott and Gilles Gallant have you covered as they’ve studied the numbers and come up with their best bet for each team in the NFL.

Without further ado, here are the guys’ best bets for every NFL team this season.

All odds courtesy of Bovada

AFC EAST

Picks by Gilles Gallant

New England Patriots

Sony Michel UNDER 1,120 Rushing Yards -165

Trusting a Patriots running back is like dating a girl who says she only has guy friends. It’s a very risky endeavor and one that will likely break your heart. This is why I don’t trust Sony Michel to rush for more than 1,120 yards in 2019.

Michel had 920 yards last season on 209 rushing attempts and had only four games in which he rushed for 100 yards or more. While he’ll likely have a few big games, the Patriots change their game plan like a chameleon week to week and may lean on James White or Rex Burkhead at any time. Since 2001, the Pats have only had four running backs rush for 1,000 yards or more in a season (Blount, Ridley, Green-Ellis and Antowain Smith). All it takes is one fumble to get left in Bill Belichick’s doghouse so the UNDER is the play.

New York Jets 

OVER 7.5 Wins -115

The Jets have been a team that has toiled in the AFC East with a playoff drought for nearly eight seasons but they have the look of a team on the rise. QB Sam Darnold will be entering his second season and played well in stretches during his rookie year but it’s the acquisition of talent through free agency that will make them a force to be reckoned with.

Le’Veon Bell is the best running back for Gang Green since Curtis Martin was on the team and should allow Darnold the confidence to dump it off to him if his recievers don’t get separation. The Jets defense is also going to wreak havoc on opposing offenses. New York nabbed MLB CJ Mosley from the Ravens and drafted DT Quinnen Williams from Alabama to pair up with DT Leonard Williams (no relation). It may come down to the final weeks when the J-E-T-S are facing the likes of the Dolphins and Bills but eight wins seems reasonable for 2019.

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen UNDER 3,150 Passing Yards -115

As a quarterback, playing a full 16-game schedule and not surpassing 2,500 passing yards in a season is kind of hard to do. Well, Josh Allen pulled that off with only 2,074 passing yards in 2018 and I find it hard to envision him surpassing 3,150 in 2019. Allen only completed 52.8 percent of his passes last season and his average yards per attempt was 6.48. To put those two stats in perspective, they both ranked dead last for a starting quarterback in the NFL.

When you look at the Bills roster, there hasn’t been much improvement offensively at wide receiver or tight end. The Bills added John Brown, who is a WR3 posing as a WR1, and TE Tyler Kroft, who is more of a red-zone target than possession receiver. I still think Allen could have a decent season with his ability to scramble but asking for 3,151 passing yards in this offense seems laughable.

Miami Dolphins

Worst Regular-Season Record +300

When the Dolphins acquired Josh Rosen from the Cardinals, they looked to be on an upward trend but then looking at their roster and upcoming schedule, it’s going to be a long season for Miami. The Dolphins’ first four games are against playoff teams from last season (Ravens, Patriots, Cowboys, Chargers) and they play 10 teams that had winning records in 2018.

Miami has the lowest projected win total according to oddsmakers and the top prize in the upcoming draft is Heisman Trophy favorite Tua Tagovailoa. Unless Rosen shows he’s the quarterback of the Dolphins’ future, the Fins could tank their final remaining games to get Tua, which means it will be another slog in South Beach.

AFC North

Picks by Stephen Campbell

Cleveland Browns

Odell Beckham Jr. Most Regular-Season Receiving Yards +750

The Browns shocked the football world by pulling off a blockbuster trade to acquire Odell Beckham Jr. from the New York Giants, and now the star wide receiver finds himself in a situation to absolutely dominate in Northeast Ohio. Paired with second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield, Beckham is primed to have one of the best seasons of his career.

The transition from the over-the-hill Eli Manning to the up-and-coming Mayfield could turn into one of the best one-two punches in the NFL. Only Julio Jones (+500), DeAndre Hopkins (+800) and Michael Thomas (+1100) are ahead of Beckham on the oddsboard, and while that’s certainly lofty company, don’t be surprised if the ex-Giant passes them when all is said and done.

Pittsburgh Steelers

To Win AFC North +185

With all of the hype surrounding the Browns right now, it’s easy to forget about the Steelers. After all, we’re used to viewing Pittsburgh as one of the most stable franchises in the NFL, yet the Steelers have been anything but over the past few years.

The drama surrounding Le’Veon Bell and Antonio Brown is finally gone. Steelers fans and the organization are ready to turn the page on what’s been a tumultuous time in the Steel City, and I think oddsmakers are undervaluing them in AFC North odds. James Conner and JuJu Smith-Schuster are talented enough to help fill the void of the departed superstars, so the Steelers could easily bounce back and become the top team in the North – especially behind an improved defensive unit. Cleveland will be better and Baltimore figures to be in the mix, but the Steelers will emerge with the AFC North banner in 2019.

Baltimore Ravens 

To Make the Playoffs +160

The Lamar Jackson era in Baltimore has officially arrived. The NFL hasn’t seen a quarterback who can do damage on the ground quite like Jackson since Michael Vick, and Jackson is still only 22. The Louisville product took over for Joe Flacco halfway through the season and injected new life into a Ravens offense that had become dull and predictable. With Flacco getting traded to Denver, this is Jackson’s team now.

Baltimore snuck into the playoffs in Week 17 last year and fell short against the Chargers in the wild-card round, and I expect the Ravens to put forth a better performance in the postseason this season. The defense lost some key players but remains talented enough to keep the Ravens in games. Whether the Ravens are playoff-bound or not will come down to Jackson, and I’m all over them at the +160 number to get in.

Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon OVER 1,200 regular-season rushing yards (+125)

There weren’t many bright spots to be found in the Bengals’ 2018 season, but the breakout of Mixon was definitely one of them. The 23-year-old ran for 1,168 yards and eight touchdowns in his second NFL season while averaging 83.4 rushing yards per game. Cincinnati is not expected to be competitive this year as evidenced by its +12500 Super Bowl price, but don’t expect that to slow Mixon down.

With longtime head coach Marvin Lewis finally gone and former Sean McVay understudy Zac Taylor in charge, the Bengals offense will have a different look to it this season, and that means Mixon’s workload will likely increase as a result. Mixon has already proven he can be a bell-cow running back, so don’t be surprised if he easily goes OVER his projected 1,200 rushing yards total.

AFC South

Picks by Scott Hastings

Houston Texans

Win the AFC South (+130)

If I was asked ahead of Week 3 of the preseason, my pick to win the AFC South would have been the Indianapolis Colts, with the Houston Texans trailing just behind. However, after Colts quarterback Andrew Luck’s shocking retirement announcement, the door has opened for the Texans to win their fourth division title in five years.

Houston took a blow in Week 3 of the preseason as well, losing starting running back Lamar Miller for the season with a knee injury. There have been rumors circulating about a trade for Melvin Gordon or free agent Jay Ajayi to become the lead back in Miller’s absence, but for now, it will be scatback Duke Johnson Jr., who is a fine replacement in his own right.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Leonard Fournette OVER 999 rushing yards (+115)

Last year was nothing short of a disaster for the former first-round pick. Fournette turned heads in his rookie campaign in 2017, rushing for 1,040 yards and nine touchdowns while appearing in just 13 games as he dealt with an ankle injury. In 2018, the LSU alum rushed for just 439 yards with five touchdowns, averaging 3.3 yards per carry, and played just eight of the 16 games. Fournette once again suffered an injury and then also was suspended for an on-field altercation.

I expect the Jags to be more dynamic in 2019 and Fournette will likely be chomping at the bit to put last year’s struggles behind him. He has slimmed down, looks focused and, barring any injury, should top 1,000 rushing yards again this season.

Tennessee Titans

Adam Humphries OVER 650 receiving yards (-105)

Tennessee quarterback Marcus Mariota hasn’t had an overly threatening receiver corps in his career, but Adam Humphries may help the former Heisman Trophy winner pad his stats. Humphries signed a four-year deal with the Titans coming off the best season of his career with the Buccaneers. He started a career-high 10 games with career bests in receiving yards (816), touchdowns (five) and receptions (76).

It appears that Humphries will get the biggest opportunity of his career and be a true No. 1 wide receiver. For that reason, collecting more than 650 yards over the season seems very achievable for the fifth-year wideout.

Indianapolis Colts

OVER 6.5 Wins (-135)

It seemed like the sky was falling for Colts fans in Week 3 of the preseason when starting quarterback Andrew Luck announced his retirement during their game against the Bears. Indianapolis dropped over 10 spots on the Super Bowl oddsboard and went from the favorite to win the division to the bottom. However, there are plenty of weapons on both sides of the ball.

The new starting quarterback will be Jacoby Brissett, who has done a good job limiting interceptions, but he has had some fumble issues and his completion percentage has been below 60 percent in his career. I think if he can keep it simple and get the ball in the hands of players such as Eric Ebron and Devin Funchess and running back Marlon Mack, the Colts have a good chance to still win seven games.

AFC West

Picks by Kris Abbott

Oakland Raiders

Worst Regular-Season Record (+1100)

There’s a lot of talk surrounding the Miami Dolphins and Arizona Cardinals being the worst teams in the NFL this season, but I’m not sure why we’re thinking that the Raiders are going to be much better. Combine the fact that they play in a tough division and they play a lot of loseable (is that even a word?) out-of-division games, and I think this is decent value.

We all know about the drama surrounding the Raiders last season and what do they do? They go out and bring in some of the most polarizing figures in the NFL in Antonio Brown, Richie Incognito and Vontaze Burfict. The combustability factor is HIGH with noted hothead Jon Gruden at the helm.

Then when you look at the on-field challenges Oakland will face in a division with the Chargers and Chiefs, and with the Packers, Bears and improved Texans, Vikings and Jaguars teams on their schedule, the Raiders could be scuffling for a four-win season.

Kansas City Chiefs

Patrick Mahomes OVER 36.5 Passing TDs (-165)

Coming off a 50-touchdown effort in 2018, it’s hard to believe that a full 14 touchdowns will be knocked off Mahomes’ total this season. In fact, he might end up with more as we aren’t sure how effective the KC rushing attack will be.  

Obviously this number is a little juicy, so if you can find 37 or 37.5 at a better price, I’d recommend making that play. Barring an injury, this seems like an absolute lock.

Los Angeles Chargers

Philip Rivers OVER 4,300 Passing Yards (-115)

Philip Rivers turns 38 in December but I’m still taking him to surpass 4,300 yards in the air this season.

With the holdout of Melvin Gordon to start the season, that means that Austin Ekeler will be getting the bulk of work out of the backfield. In a backup role last year, Ekeler had 53 targets and 39 receptions for 404 yards and three touchdowns. On the ground, he ran for 554 yards. With those numbers, expect him to get plenty more short pass and run opportunities.

The Chargers receiving corps is looking strong, especially with the emergence of Clemson’s Michael Williams in 2018. Williams had 43 receptions for 664 yards (15.4 YPR) and converted 10 TDs.

After 1,196 receiving yards in 2018, look for Keenan Allen to get back to 2017 numbers (1,393) this season.

Denver Broncos

UNDER 7 Wins (-120)

Vic Fangio makes the jump from Bears defensive coordinator to Broncos head coach this season. After working with one of the most dominant defenses in football last season, it’s important to note that the three years before that, his Bears were near the bottom of the NFL in defensive statistics. Toss in that he’s never worked in the AFC West in his career, nor been a head coach at this level, and there’s a lot of uncertainty for the Broncos.

In addition to playing in a division with two 11-win teams from a year ago, the Broncos host the Bears and Browns (two Super Bowl favorites) and visit the Packers, Texans, Vikings and an improving Bills squad.

While it’s possible that they scrounge seven wins out of this season, I’ve gotta think that’s as good as it will get for a franchise that is relying on Joe Flacco to bring them to glory. I look at this as a transition year for this team and will hedge on them going UNDER 7 with the added advantage of a potential push.

NFC EAST

Picks by Gilles Gallant

Dallas Cowboys

To Make the Playoffs (-105)

It’s easy to want to write off the Cowboys. The NFC is as competitive as it’s ever been and the Philadelphia Eagles are looking more formidable by the day. But this is America’s Team and they’ve got the pieces across the roster to compete with any team in the league.

Contract issues aside, the Cowboys have the best WR/RB combo in the NFC East and an up-and-coming defense that led them to the division crown in 2018. I think they either win the division or get a wild-card spot, so this feels like free money.

Philadelphia Eagles

Carson Wentz OVER 30.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

This one is a lock if Carson Wentz stays healthy. Unfortunately, that’s a big if. Wentz has missed eight games over the last two seasons and his playing style can sometimes lead to big hits if he’s scrambling out of the pocket. Injury concerns aside, Wentz has the offensive weapons to have a big 2019.

He’s got Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and DeSean Jackson for wide receivers and Zach Ertz at tight end. In 13 games in 2017, Wentz had 33 touchdown passes and was on pace to win NFL MVP. That top prize may not be in the cards for the fourth-year quarterback but tossing 31 touchdowns with this offense feels like a layup.

Washington Redskins

Jay Gruden First Coach To Be Fired +333

Jay Gruden is the favorite to be the first coach fired and quite frankly, I agree with the oddsmakers. The Redskins are a mess offensively and have a pretty tough schedule to open the season with four of their first five games against playoff teams from 2018. Where I think Gruden may get the boot is after Week 4 when they face the Giants at MetLife Stadium.

If Washington starts the season 0-4, I could see owner Dan Snyder giving him the boot and starting fresh with a new GM/coach tandem to lead the Deadskins into the future. Oh, did I not mention that Washington doesn’t have a general manager right now? Yeah, that’s because Snyder moved Bruce Allen to the president’s role. What a mess in DC. If you’re looking for something a little juicier, I’d also suggest DE Montez Sweat at +1600 to win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

New York Giants

Saquon Barkley OVER 11 Rushing Touchdowns -115

Obviously, with any running back, injury concerns can scare you from taking an OVER on a betting prop but Saquon Barkley isn’t your average runner. Barkley IS the Giants offense this season and even with an eight-man box, he’s nearly impossible to contain for a full 60 minutes. Barkley finished with 11 rushing touchdowns in 2018 on 260 carries and I fully expect him to surpass 300 carries in 2019.

With Eli Manning’s talent all but gone and rookie Daniel Jones waiting in the wings, quarterbacks are going to be handing it off to him early and often, so I think Saquon gets 15 or more rushing touchdowns this season and they will likely come in bunches. So, he may have one game where he has three scores and then the next game, he’s limited to 50 rushing yards on 15 carries. Welcome to the 2019 Giants offense!

NFC North

Picks by Stephen Campbell

Chicago Bears

UNDER 9 wins -110

The Bears enjoyed a major resurgence in 2018, rebounding from four straight losing years to post a 12-4 SU record and win the NFC North for the first time since 2010. The arrival of Khalil Mack transformed Chicago’s defense, and quarterback Mitchell Trubisky took a major step in his development to lead the offense week in and week out.

But despite Chicago’s huge season, oddsmakers have tabbed them with an OVER/UNDER win total of 9. The Bears defense led the NFL in 2018, but former defensive coordinator Vic Fangio departed the organization to become the head coach in Denver and defensive standouts Adrian Amos and Bryce Callahan are also gone. Don’t be surprised to see some regression in the Windy City this season.

Green Bay Packers

To Win NFC North +195

Since the Packers won Super Bowl 45, a litany of playoff disappointments followed in the next six years. But fans of the green and gold have been especially frustrated over the past few seasons, as Green Bay found itself on the outside looking in at the postseason for the first time since 2006. That drought should end in 2019.

Mike McCarthy’s midseason firing last year signaled a new era in Wisconsin, and his replacement, Sean McVay disciple Matt LaFleur, has injected new life into a franchise that badly needed it. Aaron Rodgers is still a perennial MVP candidate at 35, Davante Adams has become one of the top receivers in the NFL and general manager Brian Gutekunst broke the bank to revamp the defense in the offseason. Green Bay looks like a solid bet to win the North at +195.

Minnesota Vikings

Dalvin Cook UNDER 1,070 regular-season rushing yards +105

Since entering the NFL in 2017, Cook has shown flashes of brilliance and has looked like an all-world talent. He’s also struggled to stay healthy, missing 12 games in 2017 due to an ACL tear and suffering through another injury-plagued campaign in 2018 to finish with two rushing touchdowns and 615 rushing yards last season.

Minnesota’s offensive line has been one of the worst in the league the past few years, as the unit allowed 40 sacks in 2018. The Vikings had only five 100-yard rush games last season compared to 13 the year prior, and the club finished 30th in the NFL in rushing. For a player who hasn’t shown he can consistently stay on the field, 1,070 rushing yards is a tall order,  so take the UNDER until Cook proves he’s not injury-prone.

Detroit Lions

Kenny Golladay OVER 1,090 regular-season receiving yards (-135)

The midseason trade of Golden Tate to the Philadelphia Eagles opened up plenty of space for Golladay, and the 25-year-old proved that he’s ready to take the next step for the Lions. Golladay finished 2018 with 1,063 receiving yards and five touchdowns to improve on the 477 yards and three scores he posted in his rookie campaign the year before. He averaged an excellent 15.3 yards per catch last year.

Quarterback Matthew Stafford is never afraid to sling it, and he’s already established plenty of chemistry with Golladay. Danny Amendola signed with the Lions in the offseason, but I don’t think his addition will hinder Golladay’s quest for 100 catches. Detroit hasn’t had a receiver finish with 100 catches since Calvin Johnson in 2012, but I believe Golladay will accomplish the feat in his third pro season and go OVER his projected 1,090 receiving yard total in the process.

NFC South

Picks by Scott Hastings

New Orleans Saints 

Drew Brees OVER 30.5 passing touchdowns (-125)

Last year, the New Orleans Saints had the third-most potent offense, racking up 31.5 points per game, and the seventh-most passing touchdowns. Well, who was the man hurling the ball – none other than 40-year-old Drew Brees. The vet has thrown over 31 touchdowns in 10 of the last 11 seasons. However, that lone year without 31 majors came in 2017 when he had 23.

Brees has a crafty pass-catching running back around the goal line in Alvin Kamara and a top-end receiver in Michael Thomas. I anticipate the Saints being a force in the NFC South again and Brees will be leading the charge.

Atlanta Falcons  

To Make the Playoffs (+140)

The Falcons failed to make the playoffs last year for the first time since 2015. Atlanta had a narrow overtime loss to New England in Super Bowl 51 and lost in the divisional round to eventual champion Philadelphia in 2017. Injuries plagued the Falcons last season, losing both starting safeties, starting outside linebacker Deion Jones and starting running back Devonta Freeman for the majority of the season.

Injuries aside, quarterback Matt Ryan had one of his most successful seasons outside of winning the MVP in 2016. Ryan had his second-highest completion percentage, the fewest interceptions, second-most passing yards and second-most touchdowns in his career. Barring a complete mess of injuries like last season, the Falcons should soar into the playoffs once again.

Carolina Panthers

Christian McCaffrey OVER 1,050 rushing yards (-120)

Last season, Carolina Panthers running back Christian McCaffrey turned a lot of heads as a true dual threat on the ground and through the air. The second-year back scampered for 1,098 rushing yards on 219 totes while also collecting 867 receiving yards on 107 receptions for a total of 1,965 yards. On the depth chart, McCaffrey is only challenged by 29-year-old Cameron Artis-Payne, who has amassed a total of 491 yards on 118 carries over four seasons.

McCaffrey is once again expected to be an integral part of the Panthers offense and in the third week of the preseason, dual-threat quarterback Cam Newton suffered a foot injury. If Newton is forced to stay in the pocket more rather than tucking and running, this should provide more carries for McCaffrey to break the 1,100-yard plateau.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Jameis Winston UNDER 4,400 passing yards (-130)

The former Heisman Trophy winner and BCS national champion, Jameis Winston has had a rocky four years in the NFL. Winston had his best season in 2016, throwing for 4,090 yards with 28 touchdowns and carrying the Bucs to a 9-7 record, their only winning record since 2010. However, in the two years following, the 25-year-old has started just 22 games, throwing for a combined 6,496 yards with 38 touchdowns and 25 interceptions.

There’s not a lot of hype surrounding Tampa Bay heading into the 2019 season, and there’s talk that Winston may not even be the starting quarterback at the end of this year if things go sideways once again. One thing that goes in favor of taking the OVER in this spot is the Bucs are likely going to be trailing in many games, forcing Winston to drop back and let the ball fly, but that’s not enough for me to take the OVER.

NFC West

Picks by Scott Hastings

Los Angeles Rams

To Win the Division (-180)

Last year, the Rams tied for the best record in the NFL at 13-3 and had the second-best point differential at +143, just a point shy of the Kansas City Chiefs. Los Angeles brings back the majority of its weapons offensively, most notably Todd Gurley, Jared Goff and the same trio of wide receivers. Defensively, the Rams added six-time Pro Bowler Clay Matthews from the Green Bay Packers. I anticipate this squad doing some damage again in 2019.

Seattle Seahawks

To Miss the Playoffs (-175)

All right, there are six teams from each conference to make the playoffs. I think plenty of teams in the NFC have improved and one division in particular, and that’s the NFC West. Arizona drafted Kyler Murray with the first overall pick and the 49ers should have a healthy quarterback in Jimmy Garoppolo under center. The Seahawks won three of the four games against those two opponents, topping the Cardinals twice by a combined margin of six points.

Seattle didn’t make a lot of waves in free agency, mostly adding depth. The Seahawks aren’t winning the division and I don’t think it’s ridiculous to make a case that there are two teams in each of the other three divisions in the conference that are better than Seattle in 2019.

San Francisco 49ers

Jimmy Garoppolo to Win AP Comeback Player of the Year (+325)

As a starter, Jimmy Garoppolo has a record of 8-2 in the regular season, including going 5-0 to close out 2017, and he was 1-2 last season before suffering a season-ending injury. Expectations are high for San Francisco heading into 2019 coming off a 4-12 record last year, but it has won all three of its preseason games thus far and Garoppolo played fairly well in Week 3 against Kansas City.

If Garoppolo plays the entire season and the Niners finish somewhere around 8-8 or better, there’s no doubt in my mind that Jimmy G will be the Comeback Player of the Year.

Arizona Cardinals

Kyler Murray to Win Offensive Rookie of the Year (+170)

What’s the definition of insanity again? Doing something over and over again looking for a different result. Well, back-to-back drafts, the Cardinals selected a quarterback with their first-round pick, taking Josh Rosen in 2018 and Kyler Murray this year. Quite honestly, the offensive rookie class isn’t overly stacked, with the only real threats being Oakland running back Josh Jacobs and Bears running back David Montgomery.

Murray is going to be dynamic running the ball and has the ability to throw long balls while on the run as well that will lead to plenty of highlights. The last three quarterbacks to win the offensive rookie award were Dak Prescott, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton, known for making things happen with their feet as well as airing the ball out. The first-year running backs this season don’t have the firepower that recent award winners Saquon Barkley, Alvin Kamara and Todd Gurley have so give me the 2018 Heisman Trophy winner.