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NFC/AFC Title Game Facts & Trends

The four best teams in the NFL are set to clash with a trip to Levi’s Stadium and Super Bowl 50 on the line this weekend. The AFC Championship Game will feature a heavyweight bout between Peyton Manning and Tom Brady, while the NFC Championship features the two teams that sat atop the conference all season long.

With a trip to the big game on the line, we take a look at the hottest trends and stats of how the Conference Championship games have gone for bettors over the past 20 seasons.

Road Team Losing, But Covering

After going a perfect 4-0 SU in the Wild Card Round, road teams got shutout in the Divisional round as the home team won every game. If history is to believed, the road teams this weekend have an uphill battle to win a trip to San Francisco as visiting teams are just 15-25 SU in Conference Championships over the past 20 years.

Road teams have been a safer bet to cover the spread in these games however, as they are 22-18 ATS (55 percent) for bettors. The past two seasons have not been great for visiting teams though as they are 1-3 ATS with just the Green Bay Packers covering in their overtime loss to Seattle last season.

The totals market has few trends to specifically rely on, as the OVER has hit in 22 of the past 40 conference title games.

Favorites Offering Little Value ATS

Heading into the Conference title games, books have usually pegged the winners, as favorites are 28-12 SU in the past 20 seasons. However, the underdogs have kept games close and make spread play a virtual coin toss, as faves are 21-19 ATS in Conference Championship games.

The favorites are 3-1 ATS in the past two seasons though, with the Packers covering against the Seahawks the only time a dog picked up the spread victory. The last time a favorite lost SU in the Conference finals was back in 2012.

Team Specific Trends
  • The Patriots are 8-3 SU in their last 11 Conference Championship games.
  • The Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six Conference Championship games.
  • The total has gone UNDER in the Patriots past five Conference Championship games.
  • The Broncos are 6-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight Conference Championship games.
  • The Broncos are 3-7 SU and 4-6 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as underdogs of three-points or fewer.
  • The Panthers are 2-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when favored by three-points of less in franchise history.
  • The Cardinals are 0-3 SU and 1-2 ATS in their last three playoff games as underdogs of three points or more.